Forefront Advisers events

Discover our events

Forefront hosts regular virtual and in-person events with policy experts and industry professionals.
All sessions allow for attendees to ask questions and develop their understanding of policy and legislation.

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Upcoming Events

In-person: Roundtable Discussion
9 September
Breakfast roundtable: CADA and Europe’s technology sovereignty choices

2026 Events Overview

August

28 August 2026

Back to school – what’s on the EU agenda for September?

We resumed our Friday morning briefings to take a look at the hot topics on the EU agenda in September.

Managing Directors Chris Glück, Dustin Benton, and Max Powell discussed:

What’s top of mind as EU policy makers return from the summer break?
What do we expect from von der Leyen’s State of the European Union speech?
What’s next in the EU-China trade tensions?
How far have EU budget talks progressed?
How strong is the momentum for a new energy windfall tax?

July

30 July 2026

Can the US defeat Iran?

In our last online briefing call before the summer holiday, we discussed the military options in the Middle East and focused on the escalation pathways in the Middle East over the summer:

What would it take for the US to secure the Strait of Hormuz?
What are the chances and timeline for these capabilities to be moved into the region?
What are the military options for the Red Sea?
Where are the US weapons stocks? Can the US continue bombing Iran?
What’s the impact of the reduced stocks on Taiwan, Israel and on Ukraine?
Based on these military drivers, what’s the most likely outcome for the Middle East

24 July 2026

Burnham’s Britain: bills, borrowing and the first big tests

Andy Burnham has entered Downing Street promising a break with the politics of drift — and has already begun setting out the first contours of his premiership.

His opening message has been clear: immediate help with the cost of living, a longer-term plan for national renewal, and a government that wants to reconnect Labour with voters who have lost faith. In his first Downing Street speech, Burnham pledged cost-of-living support and a 10-year plan for Britain, while announcing the removal of VAT from electricity bills the following day.

In this online briefing call, Managing Directors James Nation and Dustin Benton looked at what Burnham’s first week tells us about the direction of his government and what we should expect next on policy, politics and delivery.

They covered:

What Burnham’s opening announcements reveal about his governing priorities
How far the cost-of-living package could go — and how it might be paid for
Whether his early agenda marks a real break from the Starmer/Reeves approach or a change in presentation
What to expect on energy bills, housing, social care, public services and regional growth
How Burnham will balance reassurance on fiscal credibility with pressure for more radical intervention
What his Cabinet appointments signal about the balance of power inside Labour
How Reform, the Conservatives, markets and Labour MPs are likely to respond

24 July 2026

Tech Policy in 2026: H1 Review and H2 Outlook

In this briefing call, Managing Directors discussed the political and regulatory changes reshaping UK and EU tech policy, and what companies should expect after the summer, covering:

The UK’s new political and policy landscape: what Andy Burnham’s appointment as Prime Minister, the closure of DSIT and the new government structure will mean for policy after the summer.
The implications for tech sovereignty and UK–EU relations: how the new political direction could shape the UK’s approach to sovereign and relationship with the EU.
What to watch in the EU after the summer: the next phase of the EU’s tech sovereignty agenda following the publication of the Technology Sovereignty Package, alongside negotiations on the Digital Networks Act, Cybersecurity Act 2 and Digital Omnibus.

22 July 2026

How to think about Chinese retaliation

The European Commission is preparing new anti-China measures over the summer to be presented in September. Beijing is threatening to hit back hard if any of these measures are adopted.

To think through the options on the table, the form and the timing of retaliation, we were delighted to welcome back Francesca Ghiretti for a 30-minute briefing call.

Francesca is the Director of the Economic Security and Resilience Initiative at RAND Europe and a leading thinker on trade defence measures and EU-China relations.

We discussed:

What are the likely measures the EU will adopt against China and when are these likely to take effect?
How has China responded to similar measures, and what form of retaliation should we expect?
How willing is Beijing to deploy its escalation dominance given domestic economic constraints and dependence on EU market access?
What’s a likely landing zone for the current EU-China spat?

17 July 2026

The coming debate over the EU ETS

The EU’s reform of its Emissions Trading Scheme, alongside its energy package, is the last major policy announcement before the summer. Both are expected on Friday 17 July.

Alongside the Industrial Accelerator Act and car CO2 regulations, the ETS review will take up a large amount of time over the autumn as the Council and Parliament form their own positions and come to an agreement on the laws. These files are all interrelated.

Our Managing Directors discussed:

What has changed in the past week
Indicators to watch for what is likely to be politically contentious
The timetable for negotiations over the ETS reform
How the ETS review relates to other major pieces of climate and industrial law that the EU is debating this Autumn

16 July 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

AI sovereignty, scale and investment
Location: London

14 July 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Chinese power in Europe
Location: Brussels

10 July 2026

What if Europe got AI sovereignty wrong?

AI sovereignty has become the phrase of the moment, both in London and in Brussels. It is used to describe everything from frontier models to compute infrastructure, AI data centres, public sector procurement, cybersecurity and investment shocks.

Yet AI sovereignty still means different things for different stakeholders. The harder question is whether Europe is solving the right problem.

In this online briefing call, our Managing Directors discussed the policy agenda around AI sovereignty in the EU and the UK, whether regulation (including CADA) is the best solution or if the UK’s pro-partnership model could provide a better long-term fix, covering:

Can Europe and the UK build globally relevant AI stack and what makes the most investable use case for institutional fund managers?
Is sovereignty best understood as ownership, control, resilience or choice?
Can public procurement create the right volume of demand without closing the markets and global retaliation?
Is there room for Europe to use its strategic assets – such as its chipmaking capabilities – as leverage in the geopolitical gambit?
Can a coalition of middle powers shape AI governance, or is the world moving towards a US-led AI licencing regime?
The UK has so far leaned into partnership rather than regulating for sovereignty, though this agenda will likely be tested under Burnham. Is this a more investible approach than what the EU has proposed? Or does it leave the UK more exposed to US dependency and geopolitical shocks?

9 July 2026

Unpacking the NATO summit

In this briefing call, James Bergeron and Christopher Glück discussed the main takeaways from the NATO summit in Ankara, covering:

How did the alliance manage transatlantic tensions and what does the new agreement on burden sharing look like?
How will NATO respond to Russian hybrid action in Europe and the war in Ukraine?
What opportunities and challenges does Türkiye’s expanded role in NATO present to the European defence industry?

9 July 2026

ETS changes – what to expect and when

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors tried to predict the negotiations to review the EU’s Emission Trading System, covering:

The timeline for the reform: when do we expect a deal?
What’s the political dynamic, and how are the majorities looking on the different sides of the debate?
Technical changes to the ETS system (making the MSR more dynamic, slower LNF reduction)
To what extent would free allocations be made conditional on clean investments?
The role of carbon removals and international offsets
The use of auction revenues

8 July 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

What if Europe got AI all wrong?

Technology sovereignty: moving from diagnosis to solutions|

Location: Brussels

3 July 2026

Will the World Cup change geopolitics?

Football has always been political. But generations of political analysts haven’t managed to establish reliable rules on how exactly politics are impacted by the performance of national teams.

In this briefing call, our football-fanatic Managing Directors set out their views, covering:

Even Kane couldn’t save Starmer: will the World Cup impact national elections in Europe?
The Trump games: Is FIFA politicising the World Cup?
Why is there no China shock in football?

June

26 June 2026

New trade measures against China – next steps

The European Council gave a green light for the European Commission to propose new trade defence powers against China.

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors reviewed the latest on the likely design, timeline and impact of these measures, covering:

The main elements for the three new instruments under discussion
The market impact and potential Chinese retaliation
The timeline
How do the new instruments fit into the existing set of tools?

25 June 2026

In-person: Workshop

EU AI Academy
Location: Brussels

25 June 2026

Rising China-Japan tensions

In this call, James Bergeron and Christopher Glück discussed the strategic shift that is underway in the Pacific:

China-Japan relations are at a low point following Tokyo’s assertive posture regarding Taiwan.
Japan also established itself as a defence partner in the region and is opening up its defence procurement.
The US is trying to fuse its partners into a more coherent deterrent.
North Korea is making steps towards nuclear expansion.

We explored the implications of these shifts, dynamics within the Pacific alliances and consequences for the global defence industry.

23 June 2026

German reform package with Martin Greive, Handelsblatt political editor

We were delighted to welcome back Martin Greive, Political Editor at Handelsblatt and one of the best experts on German fiscal policy for our briefing call.

With only one week to go until the coalition’s deadline for a reform package and a day after the pensions commission will submit its proposals, this is the ideal time to look ahead at the critical decisions Berlin is facing over the coming months and the future of the coalition:

What should we expect from the reform package on pensions and taxes? What would be the biggest game-changer?
How big is the fiscal gap for the coming years, and what’s the likelihood of a new debt brake exemption?
Why is the Government underperforming on investments in infrastructure and defence?
What’s the likelihood of snap elections next year?

22 June 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Global tipping point for digital assets
Location: Brussels

22 June 2026

Brexit at ten: Where next for EU-UK relations?

ecorded as the UK prepares to mark ten years since the Brexit referendum, and in the immediate aftermath of Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement, this call examined what the latest political shock means for the future of the UK-EU relationship.

Forefront Managing Directors Chris Gluck and James Nation discussed whether the prospect of a UK-EU reset has become more complicated, more urgent, or simply more uncertain. With Westminster facing a new leadership transition and Brussels watching closely, the conversation explores how far any reset can realistically go, what remains politically feasible in the UK, and what the EU is likely to demand in return for deeper cooperation.

The discussion looked at the domestic constraints shaping Labour’s position, including the Party’s red lines on the Single Market, Customs Union, free movement and regulatory alignment, as well as the areas where practical progress may still be possible — from defence and security to youth mobility and mutual recognition.

It also considered the timelines that policymakers and businesses should be watching over the coming months and years, and whether there is still meaningful overlap between the UK’s room for manoeuvre and the EU’s negotiating position.

This is a practical discussion about what a UK-EU reset could actually mean in the wake of renewed political uncertainty — not just rhetorically, but politically, legally and commercially.

19 June 2026

Makerfield: The result, the fallout and what comes next

Following one of the most closely watched by-elections of this Parliament, Forefront Managing Directors James Nation and James McBride unpacked Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield and assessed what it means for Labour, Reform UK and Keir Starmer’s leadership.

What began as a local contest quickly became a national political test. With Reform UK targeting what appeared to be fertile territory, Burnham’s candidacy transformed the race into a referendum on whether strong local leadership could overcome Labour’s national challenges — and whether Reform’s recent momentum could be translated into a major Westminster breakthrough.

In this briefing call, James and James examine what Burnham’s victory reveals about the state of Labour, the limits of Reform’s appeal, and the lessons both parties will take from the campaign. They discuss the extent to which Burnham’s personal popularity proved decisive, what the result means for Labour’s national brand, and whether the party can replicate that success elsewhere.

The conversation also explores the implications for Keir Starmer, the evolving dynamics within the Labour Party, and whether Burnham emerges from the contest with greater influence over Labour’s future direction. With questions about leadership, strategy and Labour’s path back to electoral dominance continuing to swirl, the episode assesses what Makerfield tells us about the next phase of British politics.

Burnham may have won the seat, but the political consequences of Makerfield are only just beginning.

17 June 2026

Will the Hormuz deal last?

We discussed the main questions across defence and security after a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz was reached last weekend, covering:

Will the ceasefire hold, and will the deal? What are the main pointers to watch?

If the deal holds, how quickly will shipping resume?

They also looked at the options for the UK government after the resignation of John Healey as Defence Minister and a further delay of the Defence Investment Plan, and assessed the chances of Germany going it alone on FCAS.

Finally, we took a look at the strategic shifts in Pacific defence trade following the Beijing summit.

16 June 2026

Hungary and Romania briefing call

Managing Directors Gergely Polner and Chris Glück discussed the timeline and key predictions for this year, covering:

Hungary

Are we going to see more good news on Hungary with the termination of the Article 7 process?

How serious is the Hungarian commitment to euro introduction, and what are the key indicators to watch

What’s the deal between Budapest and Moscow on energy supplies (Paks2, Druzhba and gas supplies)?

The three risks to the delivery of RRF funds to Hungary

Romania

How much EU funding is Romania likely to lose this year, and how would this impact the 2026 budget?

Now that Eugen Tomac has withdrawn his candidacy, who will be the next candidate?

How might a new coalition look?

12 June 2026

Chinese competition and European industrial woes are driving the EU apart

The EU is struggling to manage its energy and trade challenges.

It needs cheap, clean energy to increase its competitiveness, but it doesn’t want to become too reliant on Chinese clean energy equipment. It can make clean energy equipment, but not at the lowest price. It can use tariffs to make Chinese equipment more expensive, but it needs an open trading system to make its economy work, unlike the US.

In the face of this trilemma between strategic autonomy, cheap clean energy, and openness to trade, the EU is floundering.

Managing Directors Chris Glück and Dustin Benton discussed:

Where different voices sit on the spectrum between protectionism and open trade, and how this is affecting major EU legislation

Whether the new trade defence instruments being discussed at the upcoming European Council meeting are becoming more or less likely

The debate over why the EU isn’t competitive

Whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will change the dynamics.

10 June 2026

Makerfield by-election: can Burnham stop Reform – and what happens next?

Ahead of one of the most significant by-elections in British history on 18 June, we discussed the likely result in Makerfield and what it could mean for Labour, Reform and the next phase of UK politics.

Makerfield should, on paper, be highly fertile territory for Reform. But Andy Burnham’s entry into the race has transformed the contest, creating a test not only of Reform’s ability to convert national momentum into a Westminster breakthrough, but also of Burnham’s personal appeal and the prospects of him becoming Prime Minister.

We were joined by Aaron Iftikhar from Stack Data Strategy, a polling and analytics firm which uses traditional polling and data science to predict election outcomes around the world.

We discussed:

Whether Burnham can outperform Labour’s national brand in a seat where Reform should be highly competitive

What the result would tell us about the durability of Reform’s momentum after the May elections

Whether vote-splitting on the right, including the presence of Restore Britain, could shape the outcome

What a Burnham win – or defeat – would mean for Labour’s internal politics, the leadership and the next general election

How Burnham’s emerging policy platform on tax, fiscal rules, and public ownership may come under greater scrutiny

10 June 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

The UK Mission’s tech priorities ahead of the EU-UK summit
Location: Brussels

9 June 2026

What’s next after the resumption of strikes in Iran?

The resumption of strikes between Iran and Israel is causing concern that escalation management could fail entirely. More attacks on GCC energy infrastructure would be the logical next step. We discussed what to expect and which signals for escalation to watch out for.

We explored in more depth the dynamic between depleted US missile stockpiles and recent local production arrangements that US firms have undertaken to benefit from European content requirements and sovereignty rules.

Finally, the UK defence strategy has again been delayed but it is becoming clearer now that it will be largely, if not exclusively, funded through capital spending.

8 June 2026

Europe’s Tech Sovereignty Package: What Comes Next?

Following the Commission’s publication of its tech sovereignty package on 3 June, Forefront Managing Directors discussed one of the EU’s most strategically important digital policy initiatives of the year in this session, covering:

How the proposed Cloud and AI Development Act could shape Europe’s cloud and AI infrastructure market, including the emerging sovereignty assurance framework and national cloud and AI strategies.

What the package could mean for data centres and energy, including Data Centre Acceleration Zones

How Chips Act 2.0 could strengthen Europe’s semiconductor resilience, and where questions remain on funding, implementation and strategic priorities.

We unpacked the Commission’s direction of travel, the key political and regulatory choices ahead, and what companies should watch as Europe’s tech sovereignty agenda takes shape.

5 June 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

The EU’s cyber agenda in Council
Location: Brussels

4 June 2026

What to expect from the NATO summit and Iran talks?

The list of emerging issues to address at the NATO Ankara summit next month continues to grow. In this briefing call, we discussed what to expect on burden sharing, Ukraine and managing transatlantic relations as well as how we expect NATO to support Romania and Estonia after the drone crashes.

We also looked at the state of negotiations for an Iran ceasefire while Israel continues escalating its attack on Lebanon.
Additionally, we discussed how recent Ukrainian military successes impact the likelihood of a ceasefire with Russia this year as well as the pending US arms deal with Taiwan.

2 June 2026

Burnham and Beyond: What a Labour leadership change could mean for policy

We discussed the latest developments in UK politics and what a change of Labour leader could mean for the direction of the government. The session focused in particular on Andy Burnham’s political positioning, the likely policy shifts under a Burnham-led Labour Party, and the implications for business across the economy, tax and fiscal policy, energy and technology.

We assessed whether a leadership change would mean a sharper break with the current Labour offer or a change in tone and priorities, how far fiscal constraints would limit any new agenda, and where businesses should expect the biggest areas of policy divergence.

We covered:

What is the realistic pathway to a Labour leadership change, and how quickly could it reshape the policy agenda?

What would an Andy Burnham leadership mean for Labour’s economic strategy, including growth, industrial policy and devolution?

How might Labour’s tax and fiscal stance change under a new leader, and where are the biggest risks for business?

Could a Burnham-led Labour Party take a different approach to energy policy, infrastructure and public ownership?

What would the implications be for the tech sector, including regulation, AI, digital infrastructure and innovation policy?

How should businesses prepare for a possible shift in Labour’s priorities over the coming months?

May

29 May 2026

EU budget: negotiations down to the money

Negotiations on the next EU budget have made fast progress. Now, the talks are now entering the final phase where it all comes down to the money. The letter of the 16 ‘friends of cohesion’ has set the tone and we are in for a couple of noisy months.

Managing Director Chris Glück and Associate Director Pietro Candia took stock of where things stand and what’s to be expected next, covering:

What has been agreed so far?

What are the main questions to be resolved?

Will there be more EU debt?

Which new EU taxes are likely to materialise?

Could negotiations conclude still this year?

28 May 2026

Iran deal between momentum and pushback

There are several important defence developments happening this week, which James Bergeron and Managing Director, Christopher Glück unpacked in a short and compact briefing.

James Bergeron is a long-standing NATO adviser and security expert. He has been leading Forefront’s new security and defence service since early 2026.

Iran negotiations remain stuck between momentum and pushback. What is the timeline?

President Trump froze current plans for a $14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan. We will consider the state of play and what this latest US turn means for the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait.

Further developments in both the FCAS and GCAP initiatives are clarifying the future of the European 6th-generation fighter initiatives.

27 May 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

A summer of crisis summits – lunch roundtable with Jim Cloos and Kim Joergensen
Location: Brussels

22 May 2026

Bucharest is politics: the view from Central and Eastern Euro

Political volatility is stalking Central and Eastern Europe, with Hungary’s new government a sea change from its predecessor, Romania falling into a government crisis, Poland facing continued political polarisation, and the security environment on the border with Russia deteriorating. At the same time, energy prices in the east remain much higher than in the west, slowing industrial profits and the economic growth of the region.

Managing Directors, Chris Glück and Dustin Benton discussed in this briefing call:

Will the iron law of Romanian politics – no early elections – hold?

Will Polish polarisation between Tusk and Nawrocki lead to political deadlock, and if so, what will it mean for EU politics in 2027, which is likely to be a year of political risk for Europe?

How has Tisza managed its first few weeks in power, and what is the prospect of improved EU-Hungary relations?

What will an enduring energy crisis mean for Central and Eastern Europe, and what prospect is there for a return to energy competitiveness for the region?

21 May 2026

Security and defence briefing: Iran, NATO troop drawdown and UK defence

There are several important defence developments happening this week, which James Bergeron and Managing Director, Christopher Glück unpacked in a short and compact briefing.

James Bergeron is a long-standing NATO adviser and security expert. He has been leading Forefront’s new security and defence service since early 2026.

James and Chris covered:

Is active warfare likely to restart in Iran? What are the outlines of a deal and what is the timetable?

US troop withdrawals from Germany and a cancelled deployment to Poland raise the question of whether these signal a broader US disengagement in Europe and force Europeans to confront European capability gaps. What should we make of these withdrawals and what are the next steps?

The UK is due to release its long-delayed defence investment plan. We will discuss what we are likely to see and whether this will improve British defence readiness.

20 May 2026

EU Technology sovereignty package: what to expect

With the Commission still targeting 27 May for adoption of the Technology Sovereignty package – but major political questions unresolved – we hosted an online briefing call: ‘EU Technology sovereignty package: what to expect’ to discuss the latest state of play in Brussels and what industry should expect from the European sovereignty framework and CAIDA.

We covered:

What the sovereignty definitions are likely to look like

Whether CAIDA will introduce binding requirements or a softer risk-assessment framework

How the proposal may sit between German and French views on sovereignty

Potential European preference mechanisms for public procurement

Whether the proposal could eventually extend beyond the public sector into NIS2 industries such as healthcare, energy, finance and transport

What killed the Open-source strategy

19 May 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Investor roundtable with the European Commission on data centres, cloud and AI infrastructure
Location: Brussels

15 May 2026

EU-UK relations: what to expect from the June summit?

The EU-UK summit is expected to take place at the end of June in Brussels, with both sides hoping to show that relations are improving against a turbulent political backdrop in the UK.

We discussed the latest developments in UK politics and how they are shaping the Brexit reset, including what happens under a change of Labour leader as well as how Brussels views the negotiations. We will provide the state of play on SPS, ETS linking and the youth experience scheme, assess the UK’s request for closer access to the EU internal market for goods, and discuss the more positive side of the relationship, including security and defence cooperation.

We covered:

What is the expected timeline for the EU-UK summit and what should we expect it to deliver?

Can the Commission close negotiations on SPS, ETS linking and the youth experience scheme as a package before the summit?

How difficult will it be to resolve the question of university tuition fees under the youth scheme?

Why is the UK’s request to participate in the internal market for goods likely to be rejected by Member States?

How far can EU-UK security and defence cooperation go, and where are the limits?

14 May 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Investor breakfast with Iain Martin, Senior Editor at Forbes
Location: London

13 May 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Forefront Roundtable with Sam Alvis
Location: London

13 May 2026

Briefing call with the FT’s trade editor Peter Foster ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting

Ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, we discussed with Peter Foster his expectations for global trade with special attention to Europe, covering:

What to watch out for during the Trump-ACI summit?

What’s the impact on Europe and the rest of the world?

What are the next steps by the EU against Chinese products? How seriously should we take these?

Will the Turnberry Deal hold?

Where does this leave the U.K?

13 May 2026

Will Merz resign? Germany between reform enthusiasm and coalition crisis

Over the past week many clients have asked whether Merz will resign. In a nutshell: he won’t. But just as the German government is reaching one year in office, it’s hitting the first real coalition stress test. Reforms need to be delivered this summer or Merz will sit out his days as an early lame duck.

Forefront Managing Director Chris Glück and Head of DeHavilland Germany Tarik Oran discussed the current coalition challenge and which reforms are on the cards:

What are the main pointers to watch for coalition stability? What are the alternatives?

What are the main reforms the coalition is planning to tackle this summer and why are they so hard to deliver?

What would happen if the AfD wins regional elections in September?

11 May 2026

F UK Local elections series: Results and fallout

We had a follow-up discussion on what the results tell us about Labour’s prospects, Starmer’s future, as well as what the race will look like across the country at the next General Election.

8 May 2026

The EU’s trade tensions with the US and China – what next?

Last week’s threat by President Trump to increase car tariffs to 25% put EU-US trade tensions back on the front page. During our Friday morning briefing, we will discuss the state of play on Turnberry implementation, upcoming Section 301 investigations into the EU and the expected European response to more US tariffs.

We discussed the future of EU-China trade relations as the Commission is holding an orientation debate on Chinese overcapacity later this month.

What is the expected timeline for the EU to adopt the US trade deal from last year and which pointers to watch?

How would the EU respond to additional tariffs on cars or as a result of Section 301 investigations?

What are the main pressure points from DSTs to reporting requirements and European overcapacities?

What is the direction of travel in EU-China relations and how seriously should we take new EU measures against Chinese overcapacity?

April

30 April 2026

Tracking the energy crisis and Iran war: indicators and best sources to use

In this online briefing call, we discussed the indicators we are watching and some of the public sources we are using to do this, covering:

Tracking the reopening of Hormuz: What is the capacity for ships to pass on different routes? How can congestion be managed? What are the best sources to track ship traffic?

Tracking the energy response: How to follow national emergency measures and their inflation impact? What EU-level measures to watch?

What are the key events in the coming weeks?

Beyond reading Forefront notes, what are the best resources?

30 April 2026

F UK Local elections series: Key battlegrounds to watch: Scotland, Wales, local elections in England

A week from the elections, Managing Directors James McBride, James Nation and Aaron Iftikhar from Stack Data Strategy dived into the areas to watch on the night, including what the different electoral systems in Scotland and Wales will mean for likely performance. We’ll then turn to the key areas in England which will determine the extent to which Labour is getting squeezed in both directions, alongside exploring the challenges for the Conservatives. You’ll leave with a sense of what a ‘good’ and ‘bad’ night looks like for the parties.

30 April 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Forefront breakfast with George Parker
Location: London

24 April 2026

European council readout: energy response, EU budget, single market

EU leaders are gathering in Cyprus for an informal European Council meeting. The EU energy response is front and centre, but leaders are also expected to endorse the Commission’s framework for the next EU budget and give guidance on the next steps for Single Market integration. Finally, there will be a discussion on Ukraine funding and Russia sanctions in the post-Orbán era.

In this online briefing call, Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Dustin Benton took a look at the next steps, discussing:

What’s in the EU’s first energy package and what can be done to step up the response if the energy crisis deepens?

How is the dynamic in the European Council changing in a post-Orbán world and what’s happening with Ukraine funding and the 20th sanctions package?

Why are EU leaders rushing agreement on the next EU budget and what still needs to be agreed?

What happened to the Single Market package?

23 April 2026

AI in financial services: is today’s regulatory perimeter fit for purpose?

The Bank of England’s recent response to parliamentary scrutiny on AI in financial services signals continuity rather than a step change. The Bank stops short of backing several key Treasury Committee recommendations, including AI-specific stress testing and faster progress on oversight of critical third parties. The Government has taken a similar position, rejecting suggestions that it is taking a passive stance.

Against this backdrop, the newly appointed AI in Financial Services Champions will work to accelerate delivery of the AI Opportunities Action Plan, with recommendations to the Treasury expected ahead of London Tech Week in June. In parallel, Financial Stability Board is preparing to release a global guidance on AI.

In this online briefing call, we unpacked the evolving policy and regulatory landscape shaping AI in financial services. We discussed:

How UK regulators view the pace of AI adoption and the constraints facing the sector

Potential approaches to collective assurance across the AI supply chain, including the role of model risk testing tailored to financial services

Whether the current UK and EU regulatory perimeter remains fit for purpose

How implementation of the EU AI Act is likely to affect financial services firms

What lessons can be drawn from early regulatory approaches to cloud and what cloud testing and assurances practices lend themselves well in AI context

What AI sovereignty could look like in financial services

Questions of liability and infrastructure readiness for agentic AI – in payments and beyond

21 April 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

A Conversation with Financial Services Attachés
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21 April 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Breakfast roundtable on Hungary
Location: Brussels

17 April 2026

Unboxing the EUCO energy crisis package

The EU has accepted that the energy crisis will likely last longer and cut deeper than originally hoped. For next week’s informal EUCO, Brussels will present a package of crisis measures to tackle high energy prices. There is a lot of deja vu with the 2022 package, but it won’t be exactly the same.

On our Friday morning call, Managing Directors Dustin and Chris unpacked what we expect from the EU’s response, what’s on the cards and what’s still far-fetched, covering:

What are the measures we expect the Commission to present from state aid to windfall taxes and regulation?

How do these measures differ from the 2022 package, what are the lessons learned?

Why is fiscal support and more EU borrowing still not on the agenda?

What are Member States doing domestically?

16 April 2026

FF UK Local elections series: State of the national polls – Labour, Starmer and political fragmentation

In the first session of the series, we looked at the national polling picture and what has changed since the start of the year.

We considered the extent to which there has been any drop-off in support for Reform, whether the Prime Minister has seen any public benefit from his stance on Iran and the state of political fragmentation following the Gorton and Denton by-election. We also touched on Starmer’s political future and how Downing Street is already thinking about the post-May period.

14 April 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Defence and & Security roundtable with Jim Bergeron
Location: London

13 April 2026

What happens in Hungary after the elections

We provided an immediate analysis of what happens next in Hungary

10 April 2026

Q2 forward look – key risks and indicators

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors discussed the likely political and security dynamics over the next three months, covering:

Energy measures in the light of the different Iran scenarios

What to expect on the EU-US trade dynamic?

Russia sanctions and Ukraine funding: next steps

Are we going to see a breakthrough in UK-EU relations?

The dynamic in the UK before and after the May local elections

10 April 2026

Hungary: expectations for Sunday

Ahead of the Hungarian elections, we were delighted to host an online briefing call with Andras Kiraly, the home affairs editor of Telex to discuss the latest seat projections and the timeline for the results. Andras designed Telex’s electoral map and is the best person to discuss a bottom-up view of the race in the constituencies.

During this call, we discussed:

Our very conservative estimate of the race and the key indicators to watch;

Participation data to watch on the day and where to find it;

The vote count and the timing of the results.

10 April 2026

Security and defence briefing: Why the war will continue?

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors discussed the likely political and security dynamics over the next three months, covering:

Energy measures in the light of the different Iran scenarios

What to expect on the EU-US trade dynamic?

Russia sanctions and Ukraine funding: next steps

Are we going to see a breakthrough in UK-EU relations?

The dynamic in the UK before and after the May local elections

2 April 2026

Security and defence briefing: Preparing for a ground invasion?

Before we head into the Easter weekend, James Bergeron and Christopher Glück discussed the latest developments in the Iran war and whether we are to expect an assault with ground troops over the weekend:

What are the signs pointing towards US escalation? How would this unfold?

What’s the off-ramp to avoid a ground invasion?

How is Iran responding to the threat? And what to make of Israel’s shift to attacking the economic backbone of the country?

1 April 2026

What’s next for Hungary

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors presented the different scenarios in Hungary post-elections and the impact on the EU.

We discussed:

The dynamic until election day

The probability of the opposition winning a majority of seats and whether Fidesz would hand over power

What would a respective Tisza and Fidesz government do in the first 100 days

Further poison pills that an outgoing Fidesz administration can place to complicate life for a Tisza Government

What’s the impact on the EU?

1 April 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Agentic AI and the future of public affairs
Location: Brussels

March

27 March 2026

Security and defence briefing: Will Trump back off?

The war in Iran has reached a critical point. Iran has called the US bluff, but Trump is prolonging the deadline by ten more days, gaining time for the troop build-up. This is the last chance for an off-ramp before the US commits to a ground war.

Managing Director Christopher Glück was joined by James Bergeron, former longtime political adviser to NATO and Senior Adviser on Defence and Security at Forefront, they discussed the next steps and the timeline for a longer war, covering:

Why do we expect the war to last for at least two more weeks and likely through April and May?

What are the main signposts to watch?

How would a larger ground war play out?

Will the GCC actively enter the war?

What’s the quickest timeline for a resolution and restoration of shipping in the Strait? And what’s the base case?

27 March 2026

Iran war: longer term consequences for Europe

The war in Iran is impacting EU policy across the board. From energy policy and plans for the green transition, to Russia energy sanctions and the future of transatlantic relations.

Managing Directors Dustin Benton, Christopher Glück and Gergely Polner discussed:

What’s the EU’s short-term response to elevated energy prices?

What is the long-term consequence on green transition plans?

How does the EU need to rethink its Russia sanctions and what is likely to happen?

What is the immediate impact on EU-US trade talks and the long-term change in the transatlantic relationship?

26 March 2026

What to expect from the EU’s Tech Sovereignty Package

Forefront Managing Directors discussed the EU’s upcoming tech sovereignty package, now expected on 27 May.

The session covered:

The Cloud and AI Development Act, including emerging definitions of “sovereign” cloud and plans to accelerate data centre and AI infrastructure deployment.

The direction of Chips Act 2, as the EU recalibrates its semiconductor strategy to reduce external dependencies.

The EU’s open source strategy, aimed at strengthening domestic software ecosystems.

What this package signals for Europe’s competitiveness and long-term technology positioning.

We unpacked the Commission’s direction of travel, key points of contention, and what to watch in the months ahead.

25 March 2026

UK tax policy for digital assets – the hidden competitiveness variable

The UK’s framework for digital assets is rounding into focus, with regulatory frameworks for crypto near completion and government ambition for tokenisation take shape. But tax policy remains a crucial variable for shaping the UK’s overall competitiveness as a leading global centre for digital assets. It shapes everything from consumer products to investor appetite to the plausibility of individual use cases. HMRC is working on its approach to key crypto activities; exchange-traded product availability and ISA options are shifting; and new reporting requirements are underway.

In this briefing call, we had a discussion with Dion Seymour, Technical Director for Crypto Tax and Accounting at Anderson to unpack these pieces and consider:

How HMRC’s work on tax for cryptoasset staking and lending is likely to impact the market;

The shifting sands around exchange-traded products, ISA structures, and investor appetite;

The impact of new reporting requirements across the range of digital asset activities; and

Whether tax rules are supporting or impeding payments and other use cases involving stablecoins.

25 March 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Forefront Dinner with Robert Jenrick
Location: London

23 March 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Breakfast roundtable on Hungary
Location: London

20 March 2026

After the EUCO – what next for the EU’s energy crisis response and competitiveness?

EU leaders are meeting on Thursday for what is traditionally the economic EUCO. The plan was to talk through the timeline for the Commission’s Single Market push. But as so often the agenda has to adjust to events and the key focus will be on how to bring down energy costs in response to the Iran shock.

Our Managing Directors, Christopher Glück and Dustin Benton discussed the main outcomes of the EUCO and the steps ahead, covering:

What are the concrete measures the EU is likely to take to bring down energy prices?

Will the ETS and the EU’s credibility on decarbonization come under pressure?

What’s next on EU competitiveness?

19 March 2026

Security and defence briefing: A long war in Iran?

In this briefing call, James Bergeron and Managing Director Christopher Glück explored the latest developments across security and defence, looking at both the geopolitical situation and European defence spending and industrial developments.

In last week’s briefing, James predicted a crunch week for the US/Israeli war effort. This week, we set out our scenarios on how and when the war will end:

What do US deployments tell us about the expected timeline?

How long will it take to restore free traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?

What are the risks of a Lebanon 2006 scenario?

19 March 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Scaling with AI: how Europe can realise its competitive advantage across industries
Location: Brussels

18 March 2026

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

Breakfast with John Berrigan
Location: Brussels

17 March 2026

EU competition policy – will the EU allow for the creation of European champions?

The EU will be reviewing its merger rules and there is growing political pressure to allow for the creation of European champions. But officials in DG Competition aren’t convinced and continue pushing back against Commissioner Ribera’s priorities.

In this briefing call, we looked at how the debate is likely to play out, covering:

What to expect from the revised EU merger guidelines?

Is the European champions narrative gathering momentum and what does it mean in practice?

Will Ribera be able to run DG Comp or is DG Comp running Ribera?

What are the next steps and the main pointers in current cases?

17 March 2026

EU competition policy – will the EU allow for the creation of European champions?

In this briefing call, we looked at how the debate is likely to play out, covering:

What to expect from the revised EU merger guidelines?

Is the European champions narrative gathering momentum and what does it mean in practice?

Will Ribera be able to run DG Comp or is DG Comp running Ribera?

What are the next steps and the main pointers in current cases?

13 March 2026

Security and defence briefing: Crunchpoint for Iran

After week two of the war in Iran, James and Chris looked at the main pointers going forward:

What is the likely timetable for the conflict and the pointers for a quick resolution

Can transit through the Strait of Hormuz be restored via insurance and maritime escort during a live conflict?

What is the main risk for further escalation?

11 March 2026

Industrial Accelerator Act: the final proposal

After months of delays, the Commission has finally proposed its Industrial Accelerator Act. The proposal has changed substantially from the initial leaks in January.

In the past week, the Chinese government has made an initial response to the IAA, and energy prices have continued to spike.

In this briefing call, our experts provided an overview, assessment of some of the initial challenges that are in the revised proposal and opened to questions about what has changed.

6 March 2026

Energy prices spike – what are the options for the EU and UK?

In this briefing call, we recapped our base case for the duration of the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and looked at the options for the EU and the UK to address the spike in energy prices:

How long is the disruption of energy supply likely to last?

At what pricing level and after how much time would the EU and UK need to intervene?

What are the options available to governments and the EU?

What’s the most likely course of action?

5 March 2026

Security and defence briefing: Middle East outlook

James and Chris discussed the key pointers to watch over the next week on Iran, Macron’s speech on nuclear protection for Europe and the latest on defence spending across the EU.

4 March 2026

Industrial Accelerator Act: the final proposal

After months of delays, the Commission has finally proposed its Industrial Accelerator Act. The proposal has changed substantially from the initial leaks in January.

In this briefing call, our experts provided an overview and opened to questions about what has changed.

2 March 2026

Next steps on Iran

Together with James Bergeron, who is leading our security service and is acting as a consultant political adviser to the NATO maritime commander, we explored the main questions going forward. James correctly predicted the attack and large-scale retaliation.

We explored:

Has the US operation gone to plan so far and what should we be expecting next?
How far will Iran escalate its response?
What does this mean for shipping and energy supply?
What’sthe role of the Europeans?
What are the main pointers to watch over the next few days?

February

27 February 2026

By-election series: Gorton and Denton – Results and fallout

Forefront Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation were joined by Aaron Iftikhar from Stack Data Strategy, a polling and analytics firm which uses traditional polling and data science to predict election outcomes around the world.

They had a follow-up discussion on what the results tell us about Labour’s prospects ahead of the local elections in May, as well as what the race will look like across the country at the next General Election.

26 February 2026

How Canada is dealing with US pressure – lessons learned

In this online briefing call, we discussed how Canada is responding to shifting US trade and foreign policy, and what lessons this may hold for Europe and beyond.

We were joined by Alex Lawrence, who until recently served as Deputy Chief of Staff in the Office of Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister. Alex was closely involved in several trade negotiations, including the EU-Canada FTA (CETA) and the new FTA between the US, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA).

We probed him about Canada’s negotiating strategy with the Trump Administration and the next steps for Canada in opening up to the rest of the world, including:

Balancing retaliation and engagement in Canada–US relations
How Canadian domestic politics impacts the government’s narrative
How the USMCA negotiations are likely to play out
What to make of Canadian ‘deals’ with China? What is rhetoric and what is real?
Canada’s position on Arctic security and the future of Greenland

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

24 February 2026

Forefront breakfast with Peter Foster
Location: London

23 February 2026

By-election series: Gorton and Denton – Likely results and consequences

They looked at the prospects of Labour coming third, and if that were to happen whether that could pull forward a challenge to Starmer’s leadership to before the local elections in May.

20 February 2026

What the Digital Networks Act could mean for cloud and data centres

The Commission’s proposal for the Digital Networks Act, tabled last month, does not on its face introduce direct regulation of cloud networks or data centres, despite the long-standing debate around the cloudification of telecoms services. However, the proposal opens the door to secondary regulation and would inevitably create new regulatory engagement channels for the industry with BEREC and national authorities. A recent study, commissioned by BEREC, suggests that data centres are deeply integrated with telecoms networks, and regulators would need to explore new approaches to digital infrastructure. This includes the convergence between data centres, telecoms networks and cloud services. In Forefront’s monthly EmTech briefing, Managing Director Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina and Analysys Mason Managing Partner David Abecassis unpacked what this could mean in practice. They covered:

The underlying assumptions around the cloudification of telecoms networks and services;
How the Digital Networks Act defines convergence between telecoms and cloud networks, including the role of digital data centres;
The anticipated impact of the proposal on content delivery networks;
Potential changes to the pre-authorisation regime and their implications for cloud networks and data centres;
The new mandate given to BEREC in this area, including how it is likely to unfold.

20 February 2026

Populism’s European tour: similarities and differences across the major economies

The Forefront team took a step back and assessed the rise of populism in Europe’s major economies: the UK, France, Germany, and Italy.

Our experts Dustin Benton, Christopher Glück, James Nation, Pietro Candia and Pascal LeTendre-Hanns looked at some of the common factors behind the rise of populist parties at this moment in time, but also drilled down into some of the key similarities and differences between the likes of Reform, RN and the AfD.

The panel assessed the real prospects for any of these parties of assuming power and their emerging plans for Government, alongside pausing to consider what all of this means for EU-UK relations, and Europe’s external relationships with the US, China and Russia.

Finally, they looked into the ‘Meloni playbook’: does this provide a model for other populist parties when entering government and what reassurance should this provide to markets?

13 February 2026

Starmer’s future: what happens next and what changes

This week has been another turbulent week in UK politics, with resignations from Downing Street, the first call from a senior Labour figure for Keir Starmer to resign, and overt positioning from leadership rivals.

The Westminster consensus is that Starmer’s departure as Prime Minister is now only a matter of time, with the possibility of other trigger points emerging in the run-up to the May elections.

In this online briefing call, Forefront Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation took a step back and assessed the damage to Starmer, covering:

What would change in policy and political strategy under Starmer’s successor?
Who may that successor be?
Walkthroughs of potential scenarios
The implications for fiscal and economic policy, and for business

6 February 2026

Pressure on carbon pricing

By the end of December, the EU’s carbon price had climbed to €90/tonne, nearly equalling the highs of 2022 and 2023. In January, it rose further, then fell by over 10%. This market volatility is feeding into a narrative of European industrial decline, which requires urgent action to change.

We discussed the state of the EU’s carbon market and how it could change to support EU industry, covering:

What’s happening in the carbon market
A set of scenarios covering what could be changed in this year’s ETS review
How the proposed EU-UK ETS and electricity market links could affect the dynamics

3 February 2026

One year after J.D. Vance shocked Europe – what to expect from the MSC?

We were delighted to welcome back Nico Lange to discuss Munich, Ukraine and Greenland with us.

Nico is a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference and former chief of staff at the German Ministry of Defence. As part of the discussion, we covered:

Preparations for MSC 2026 and the risk of new tensions
The ongoing ceasefire talks in Ukraine and the key indicators to watch
Next steps on Greenland, including both compromise and escalation scenarios

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

3 February 2026

Forefront Breakfast with Hungarian polling expert Matyas Bodi
Location: London

January

23 January 2026

Impact of Greenland tensions on business
Following the Davos meetings and Trump’s doubling down on purchasing Greenland, we focused on the impact of the EU-US tensions on business.

Our Managing Directors discussed the risks for US, UK and EU firms, covering:

What is the latest on talks on greater defence and security cooperation within the EU? What about the prospects for greater UK-EU collaboration?
What is the view from Brussels on how prepared the UK is for discussions on an economic reset, ahead of Starmer’s visit next week?
What is the latest from London on what exactly the Labour Government is hoping to achieve and what’s been the reaction to, forexample, the Commission floating the UK’s membership of the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?
Where does the EU-UK reset rank in terms of priorities for EU leaders right now?
Stepping back, what do we think the Trump Presidency means for the overall EU-UK relationship?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

22 January 2026

Digital simplification in action – progress, gaps and next steps
Location: Brussels

20 January 2026

The EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act
Next week, the EU will launch the IAA. It’s a big, bold, even brash attempt to use the single market to solve the EU’s competitiveness challenges in energy-related and energy intensive industries. An initial estimate suggests around 12-15% of EU GDP will be directly affected.

We discussed what we know about the upcoming Act, and to hear more about:

What is in scope, and what measures the EU is likely to adopt
Whether there’s a settled definition of ‘Made in Europe’
How the EU plans to catch up to US and Chinese action on critical raw materials; and
How the IAA relates to current trade disputes with the US and China

19 January 2026

Greenland scenarios after Trump’s tariff threat
Our Managing Directors discussed the EU’s and the UK’s expected reactions to Trump’s threat of 10% tariffs over Greenland, covering:

What’s the latest on the response to the Draghi report in Europe?
What are the prospects for significant progress on Omnibus this year and in what areas?
What’s been the reaction to the UK’s AI Action Plan and how well is the UK positioned given Trump’s first moves in the US and the ongoing debate over AI regulation in Europe?
Just what is the Labour Government up to on deregulation? Are they clear on what they want economic regulators to do and what can we expect to see?
Does the focus on regulation distract from a focus on other areas of policy that will impact on competitiveness e.g. the outlook for energy?

15 January 2026

Transatlantic tensions – what’s the economic impact?

The new year has started with transatlantic tensions escalating from Greenland to trade and digital services.

In this week’s Friday morning briefing, our Managing Directors looked at the impact across our services, from digital services to energy and finance, covering:

Where could regulatory autonomy come under pressure?
How much of this is the EU prepared to accept in the context of trade negotiations and where would the EU need to draw a line?
What are the options for the EU to respond?
What are the internal trade-offs in charting a response that the EU needs to resolve?

15 January 2026

2026 Lookahead: Tech policy
We reflected on what has actually transpired over the past year, what was anticipated but never materialised, and why, and offer a forward-looking perspective as we begin to anticipate the dynamics of 2026.

We covered:

The impact of trade geopolitics on Europe’s technology agenda, innovation priorities, and competition policy.
Technology sovereignty and the latest developments in cloud and data-centre infrastructure.
The AI regulatory agenda, from the energy footprint of the AI ecosystem to implementation of the AI Act, sector-specific impacts ranging from financial services to connected vehicles, and the rise of AI gigafactories.
The shifting terrain of data regulation and cyber-security policy.
Digital simplification and deregulatory ambitions in Brussels, and how these priorities resonate across the Channel in N10.

15 January 2026

Hungary briefing call: Who will win the elections and will the US get involved?
Three months out from the most likely date of the Hungarian elections, we host a call with leading Hungarian political journalist Peter Magyari from Valasz Online.

We discussed with Peter the dynamic leading up to the elections, the indicators to watch on who will win and the probabilities of each scenario.

The Hungarian elections could also serve as a test case for the US National Security Strategy’s stated intention to support “patriotic” forces. We assessed the links between Orban and Trump and whether the US will try to prop up Viktor Orban’s regime.

14 January 2026

2026 Lookahead: Digital assets
Early 2026 promises to be busy in European digital assets policy.

The UK will put the finishing touches on its crypto regime and clarify its broader ambitions for digital assets. The EU is moving back to consultation mode, with the DLT Pilot – and even MiCA – returning to the negotiating table.

We assessed the moving pieces across Europe’s narrow crypto rules and the bigger picture for tokenisation, stablecoins and CBDCs as a busy year kicks off.

9 January 2026

2026 Lookahead: EU politics
2026 is going to be another packed year in EU politics, from key trade decisions at the beginning of the year to the fateful Hungarian elections in the spring and renewed efforts to shore up European competitiveness.

In this briefing call, Forefront EU Politics Managing Directors Gergely Polner and Christopher Glück previewed the key developments across EU politics for 2026.

They discussed the main trends across trade and economic security, Brussels’ regulatory push for simplification and European preference, Russia-Ukraine developments and key national elections.

8 January 2026

2026 Lookahead: EU politics
Forefront Managing Directors previewed the key developments across UK politics for 2026.

They covered Starmer’s future and the likely trigger points for a Labour leadership race, what this means for domestic policy (specifically, on the economy) and broader developments we can expect in the UK’s political landscape.

7 January 2026

2026 Lookahead: EU politics
2025 was the year in which simplification turned into deregulation, and when the pace of rapid decarbonisation faced organised opposition in industry, automotive, and agriculture.

Even though Europe is roughly on track for its green goals, it is much less confident in them.

What could change the dynamic? We discussed four factors:

A reassertion of the connection between green rules and buying European products.
A shift to resilience to limit the cost of climate and nature damage.
An alignment between electrotech and European defence.
A push on the circular economy to reinforce strategic autonomy.

2025 Events Overview

December

19 December 2025
EU-US tensions are boiling over – what’s next?

The end of the year saw a new peak in tensions between the US administration and the EU. We have long predicted that trade tension would pick up again as Washington is getting frustrated with Brussels. It finally happened with this week’s threats against EU companies launching a new round of EU-US negotiations. This comes on the back of tension over Ukraine talks and President Trump’s Politico interview.

We discussed EU-US tensions and the outlook on trade and Ukraine in our final Friday briefing of the year:

Why is the US suddenly ramping up pressure on the EU again?
What is the EU’s expected response and what are we likely to see in 2026?
What landing zone for a compromise is realistic?
Does the national security strategy matter and what to make of the new hostility towards the EU from Washington?

17 December 2025
A year in tech policy

As lights rise on Christmas trees, we host an end-of-year debrief on what 2025 has meant for the digital policy and regulatory agenda in both the EU and the UK.

We explored:

The impact of trade geopolitics on Europe’s technology agenda, innovation priorities, and competition policy.
Technology sovereignty and the latest developments in cloud and data-centre infrastructure.
The AI regulatory agenda, from the energy footprint of the AI ecosystem to implementation of the AI Act, sector-specific impacts ranging from financial services to connected vehicles, and the rise of AI gigafactories.
The shifting terrain of data regulation and cyber-security policy.
Digital simplification and deregulatory ambitions in Brussels, and how these priorities resonate across the Channel in N10.

12 December 2025
EU automotive package – exploring the political dynamic

We kicked the tyres on how far the EU will go in rethinking its car regulations. Our Managing Directors discussed:

The likely changes to the car CO2 emission regulation
The automotive package delays and the political dynamic in the Commission, Parliament and Council
Local content requirements for cars
Next steps on connected cars

5 December 2025
European Commission dynamics: knives are out before Christmas

One year after the von der Leyen II Commission took office, the dismantling of green rules is leading to unprecedented tensions between Commissioners and between DGs. At the same time, politics in the European Parliament is occupying most of the tactical thinking about files and proposals.

In our Friday briefing call, we explored the latest dynamics and what to expect in 2026:

What are the main conflicts in the European Commission and how do they impact the simplification and green deal agenda?
How is the Commission working with an increasingly hostile European Parliament?
What is happening in areas that don’t get political attention, like competition?
How will the dismantling of green rules continue in 2026?

November

28 November 2025

Ukraine peace talk scenarios

Ukraine peace talks are stretching beyond the initial Thanksgiving deadline and there is still a range of possible outcomes. On our Friday morning briefing, we discussed the main dynamics, points to watch and scenarios:

What are the main signposts to watch for a deal?
Which outcomes are possible?
What’s the European position and what is needed for the EU to have a say on outcomes?
What are the options for Ukraine financing into 2026 and 2027?

27 November 2025

UK Budget build-up series: Post-Budget analysis

21 November 2025

UK Budget build-up series: Final overview

21 November 2025

EU-UK negotiations

Join Forefront Advisers’ Managing Directors Gergely Polner, Christopher Glück and James Nation to unpack the latest in EU-UK negotiations.

After months of talks behind the scenes, we are seeing some signs of matters coming to a head in key areas like defence and the veterinary agreement, while serious sticking points remain like the level of financial contributions from the UK.

In the call we covered:

Latest developments
Timelines and what to expect next
The main areas of agreement and disagreement. Where is progress likely in the coming period and where do we expect further delays?
Stepping back, how significant is the ‘Brexit reset’ from both a London and Brussels’ vantage point, given political developments in the EU and the UK

20 November 2025

EU Tech Sovereignty and Digital Simplification Debrief

Next week is a big one for Europe’s digital policy agenda. The European Commission is set to unveil its Digital Simplification Package – including at least two omnibus proposals covering data and AI rules. At the same time, Berlin will host Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Summit, bringing together political leaders and industries to discuss data centre infrastructure, cloud, AI, DMA enforcement, and digital wallets.

In this online briefing call, we discussed:

With the Digital Omnibus, which rules does the EU plan to simplify across cyber, data, and AI – and what does this mean for different industries?
Is AI Act enforcement truly at risk?
What isn’t changing with the Digital Omnibus?
What did political leaders and digital ministers agree at the Franco-German Sovereignty Summit in Berlin – and what does it reveal about the evolving policy and geopolitical agenda around the Cloud and AI Development Act, AI Gigafactories, and European preference in public sector procurement?
Does Europe have a clear path for derisking dependencies on non-European technologies?

14 November 2025

UK Budget build-up series: The politics of the Budget

14 November 2025

CEE and sanctions forward look

The CEE region, specifically Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia, are serving as the European litmus test for US sanctions on Russian energy. We will discuss how these countries are lobbying the Trump administration and whether they can wriggle out of US sanctions.

We discussed the next steps on EU sanctions (like the 20th sanctions package) and energy security measures.

12 November 2025

Draghi implementation in Financial Services – does Brussels deliver?

The European Commission will be proposing a series of market infrastructure changes on 3 December. The draft measures were leaked to the press last Friday.

Our Managing Directors provided a detailed assessment of these measures, the chances of adoption and their implications:

What are the key measures on market infrastructure?
How do they compare to the Draghi report? What key elements are missing?
What’s the likely impact? Will it boost European competitiveness?

7 November 2025

UK Budget build-up series: Supply-side reforms, growth measures and productivity

7 November 2025

EU position on China – key indicators to watch

Is the EU toughening its stance on China? On the face of it, we will see a series of trade defence measures from Europe against China in the coming months. This will go parallel with more measures on EU decoupling from Chinese supply chains.

But these measures hide a deeper problem. The EU remains exposed to Chinese pressure on critical supplies for years to come. China has enormous leverage in Europe and will not tolerate wide scale derisking.

In this online briefing call, we discussed:

What are the indicators to watch
How far does this leverage go
What the EU can achieve with its allies

October

31 October 2025

How dangerous is the European Parliament for von der Leyen?

Last week’s failed vote on the first simplification package, firm opposition to EU budget reform and three votes of no-confidence against Commission President von der Leyen in short succession raise speculation that von der Leyen will not last her full term.

In our online briefing call, Managing Directors Christopher Glück, Dustin Benton and simplification lead analyst Manon Quénel discussed how dangerous a dysfunctional European Parliament has become to von der Leyen and what it means for the future of the simplification agenda.

How real is the risk that von der Leyen could be ousted?
Why is frustration growing in the Parliament over the Commission?
Will the simplification agenda be derailed?
What will happen to the EU budget reform?

29 October 2025

Hungarian polling deep dive

We host an online discussion on Hungarian polls and public opinion on Wednesday 29 October.

The aim is to take stock of the state of the race after the large public events on October 23 across the country and discuss the key pointers for the 2026 parliamentary elections.

We were delighted to welcome Mátyás Bódi, an expert in political geography who has built wide recognition for his work analysing Hungarian polling data. Mátyás has a history of correctly calling Hungarian elections. He will be joined by Twan van der Togt from Stack Data Strategy, who advises campaigns across Europe on polling strategy and election modelling, and will share how Stack is reading the Hungarian race.

We discussed the key datapoints to watch in the runup to the elections, especially:

The bias in the Hungarian electoral system;
How to read the data coming from the different pollsters;
The indicators to watch on which political party is more likely to be ahead in the race;
The key milestones that can change the race.

24 October 2025

Sanctions and defence

We discussed the impact and likely trajectory of the different G7 sanctions measures, including:

The contents of the 19th sanctions package and the likely contents of the upcoming 20th package
The outcome of the European Council meeting on 23 October
The likely progress on using the immobilised assets
The US and UK sanctions measures on Russian oil exports and their likely impact on the ceasefire

17 October 2025

France: the end of Macronism?

After two eventful weeks in France, our France lead Pascal LeTendre-Hanns and Managing Director Christopher Glück took a look ahead to the upcoming budget debates and take stock of what’s left of Macron’s reforms.

Are we now looking at a radical and populist budget? Could there be a stand-off over the EU’s fiscal rules?
Is the suspension of the pension reform enough to save Macron or is it the end of Macronism?
How likely is it that the budget will fail in parliament?
What if no budget can be agreed?

10 October 2025

How the EU’s 2035 car CO₂ targets could shift

Europe’s car industry is on the back foot, facing pressure from Chinese EV companies and the cost of transitioning to cleaner cars. In response, the EU changed the industry’s 2025 targets, but the debate has now shifted to changing the 2035 targets. On the one hand, few question that EVs will be the dominant car technology in a decade’s time, but on the other the industry no longer appears confident that it can get to 100% EVs.

We discussed:

The options on the table for changing the 2035 targets
The dynamic between car makers in Germany, elsewhere in Europe, and the wider fuels and car parts supply chain
The link to EU 2040 targets
The trade dimension, including how the EU and China are likely to respond to any changes in 2035 targets

8 October 2025

The Basel crypto standard: big decisions on the road to implementation

Paul Cheveriat (President of Digital Assets at CRB Monitor) and Marianne Webber (Head of Digital Asset Market and Regulatory Strategy at Standard Chartered) and Matt Gravelle (Managing Director at Forefront) discussed the latest movement around Basel and what it means for banks and the broader crypto and tokenisation landscapes.

The Basel standard for banks’ exposures to crypto-assets is due to be implemented globally by 1 January 2026. By determining the capital that banks must hold, the Basel framework shapes banks’ appetite to provide services across unbacked crypto (like BTC and ETH), stablecoins and traditional tokenised instruments. But the politics of Basel implementation are never dull and the crypto framework is no exception. Major jurisdictions – namely the US – appear ready to chart their own course. Others, including the UK and EU, are still considering their overall approach. And timelines are slipping. As the momentum behind tokenisation projects continues to grow these implementation choices are becoming critical: they will determine the role of banks in digital assets.

We discussed:

The overall of state of play on the Basel standard globally and in Europe
How the standard impacts banks’ plans around tokenisation and crypto
The big open commercial and operational questions as implementation gets more political

3 October 2025

EU-US-China: medium-term trajectory

In this briefing call, we looked beyond the immediate issues in the EU’s relationship with China and the US, trying to chart at least a medium-term trajectory.

Our managing directors presented our key predictions and the drivers to watch:

How much leverage can the EU build up vis-à-vis China and the US in the coming months and years?
How hard will the US push the EU to decouple from Chinese supply chains? How much of this is just noise and how much is real?
What’s the Chinese approach towards the EU?
Looking at high-priority sectors to test our predictions: AI, tech sovereignty, energy and green transition, critical minerals and defence.

2 October 2025

Labour’s Tech Policy Agenda – What We Learnt from the Party Conferences

Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, Dustin Benton and James Nation OBE discussed:

Prospects for UK AI regulation, and how the copyright AI debate is shaping the prospects of data centre infrastructure and US investor appetite into the UK;
What to expect for tech in the Budget;
The forthcoming Cyber Bill – when is it expected post Cabinet reshuffle, and what will it look like?
How Labour’s regulatory agenda could impact delivery of the UK–US Tech Pact, and vice versa.
The real impact of AI on government productivity, and substance behind the new big government contracts with the US tech companies, from DSIT to MoD;
Energy consumption of AI, and developments of the AI Energy Council.

September

29 September 2025

The consequences of Russian drone incursions – for defence procurement and strategic posture

We were delighted to host a briefing call on Monday 29 September with Prof James Bergeron, Consultant Political Advisor to NATO’s Maritime Commander.

Professor Bergeron is one of the outstanding strategic thinkers on defence. We discussed with him the implications of Russia’s repeated incursions into NATO airspace and the revolution in defence technology, specifically:

Key questions included:

Looking back, what happened during the Russian drone incursions? What worked and what didn’t?
What are the most efficient ways of combating mass drone incursions from the Red Sea to Poland?
How will this change defence procurement?
What are the likely objectives of Russia by these incursions and what are the potential scenarios?
What is the NATO response?

26 September 2025

Sanctions forward look

The EU is still debating the 19th Russia sanctions package, but it is already discussing the next round of sanctions on Russia with its G7 partners.

We provided an update on the timeline, likely content and impact of all the upcoming sanctions on Russia as well as sanctions on other countries.

We discussed, among others:

The likely timeline and contents of the 19th Russia package and their impact
What’s the impact on energy markets?
What will happen to the frozen Russian assets?
The role of the G7 in coordination
How policymakers see the impact of sanctions and what is the likely direction of travel for sanctions policy

19 September 2025

US-UK State visit debrief

Forefront Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, Matt Gravelle and James Nation unpacked the major developments following on from President Trump’s Second State Visit to the UK.

We looked at some of the interactions with current events in British politics, as well as the details of what was agreed.

Key questions included:

Would both sides describe the visit as a ‘success’?
What did we learn about the ‘tech partnership’ and where does this go next?
What were some of the more significant investments confirmed by Downing Street and the White House?
What’s next for US-UK trade more broadly?
Will the State Visit help or hinder Starmer’s current political difficulties or does it just not matter?

12 September 2025

What mattered in von der Leyen’s SOTEU speech?

In our online briefing, we discussed what matters in the SOTEU speech for EU politics next year with a focus on energy and digital files, including:

Did von der Leyen manage to reinvigorate her electoral coalition in the European Parliament?
What is the potential for escalation between the parliament and Commission in the next year?
What should we expect across energy, sustainability and digital files for the EU’s competitiveness agenda?

10 September 2025

UK Autumn digital assets update – the next steps and looming decision-points

It has already been a busy year for UK digital assets policy. We have had multiple consultations; several more are around the corner, touching on key topics like market abuse, disclosures, operational risk and conduct (from the FCA), and stablecoins (from the Bank of England). Sandboxes and trials are ramping up. Core legislation is being finalised by the Treasury. This technical work is happening against the backdrop of big political questions about UK policy towards tokenisation and stablecoins and increasing global competition.

In this online briefing call, we covered the key things to know for the remainder of 2025, including:

The questions swirling around UK stablecoin and digital payments policy;
The big issues in the FCA and Bank of England’s next batch of consultations; and
The government’s posture towards DLT and tokenisation as global developments continue together steam.

5 September 2025

France – what happens after the vote of confidence?

Less than a year since Michel Barnier was brought down, France faces being without a government again, as Francois Bayrou is expected to lose the confidence vote next week.

In our online briefing call, Pascal LeTendre-Hanns and Christopher Glück discussed what is likely to come next and what the impact is on French influence in the EU:

Are we going to see snap elections and what options exist for a replacement Prime Minister and stable majorities?
When could new elections take place and what does polling tell us about likely outcomes?
What will happen to French fiscal consolidation efforts?
What does this all mean for Brussels policy-making?

4 September 2025

Back to school: H2 Tech Policy Outlook

We discussed: 

Diverging sovereignty strategies: The EU is pivoting away from US tech via procurement and regulatory shifts – especially in cloud – while the UK is courting US partnerships. 
Politics vs policy: We will examine the regulatory levers being deployed in the EU – from CAIDA and cloud regulation to cybersecurity and procurement – and contrast them with the UK’s US partnership-oriented approach. 
Regulatory chokepoints in AI: The EU AI Act will hit data-heavy sectors first. The UK’s revived AI Bill may grow under political pressure, creating a complex compliance patchwork and investor push for AI assurance.
Digital services taxes: Despite trade tensions, neither Brussels nor Westminster is prepared to concede ground. We explore what this means for transatlantic digital policy and trade. 
Digital Omnibus: EU simplification efforts are increasingly complex. While cybersecurity remains a priority (CRA, NIS2, DORA), the GDPR review and broader reforms – Data Act, Digital Fairness Act – face political and scope challenges. 
Timelines: From the UK’s delayed AI Bill consultation to the EU’s packed legislative calendar (CSA, Digital Omnibus, DNA), we’ll walk through what to watch – and when.

3 September 2025

Is Germany delivering the economic turnaround? With Martin Greive, Handelsblatt

After the summer break, German budget negotiations (on both, the 2025 and 2026 budgets) are going into the hot phase.

We were delighted to welcome back Martin Greive, Deputy Head of the Berlin office of the leading German business newspaper Handelsblatt and one of the most distinguished observers of German economic policy to discuss what the autumn will bring for German politics:

What’s the state of the coalition a couple of months into the term? What are the main risk for government instability?
What to expect from fiscal policy? Where is the money going and when will consolidation pressure hit?
What are the big questions to watch until the end of the year?

3 September 2025

UK Politics Look Ahead

Forefront Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation previewed what the rest of the year has in store for UK politics.

They covered:

The latest outlook for the OBR forecast and the autumn Budget, with Rachel Reeves set to make difficult judgements on taxation.
The prospect of another Number 10 reset, and what this means for the Prime Minister’s strategy.
The task ahead for Starmer and the Opposition parties ahead of party conference season.

August

29 August 2025

Key dates to watch in 2025

After the summer holiday, we provided a month-by-month prediction of key events for the rest of 2025.

Our analysts tried to pin these events on a timeline, including:

The timeline for the EU/UK-US trade deal implementation
Next steps on sanctions, Ukraine and defence investments
Regulatory simplification drive in the EU
Supply chain onshoring and sovereignty measures
Dynamic in key capitals from the German budget to French government stability

18 August 2025

Trump-Putin meeting debrief with Nico Lange

We were delighted to host Nico Lange again, former chief of staff at the German Ministry of Defence and senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, for a briefing call about the war in Ukraine and European Defence.

We discussed the aftermath of the Trump-Putin meeting, specifically:

How to read the results (if any) of the meeting?
What are the chances of a ceasefire in Ukraine?
What does it mean for sanctions easing?
What is the state of the European defence preparedness and what’s the trajectory for its defence industry?
EU budget talks

July

30 July 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

On Sunday, the EU and the US announced that they had reached an agreement on trade, but the deal opened more questions than the ones it answered

On our regular Wednesday call, we explored the key elements of the deal, how it will be implemented, and the next steps.

As always, we addressed three main questions:

What are the latest developments in talks?
What to watch out for in the next week?

25 July 2025

What does the new EU Budget mean for corporates?

Last week, the European Commission presented its proposal for the 2028-2034 budget framework.

Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Dustin Benton discussed what is changing for corporates across different sectors, including:

What does the new cohesion policy and state aid rules mean for public investment support?
What is the new Competitiveness Fund and how can corporates get funding?
How much support will go to which sector? Is the EU phasing out or ramping up support for decarbonisation?
What are the new EU taxes we might see introduced from 2028?

24 July 2025

What does the new EU Budget mean for markets?

Last week, the European Commission presented its proposal for the 2028-2034 budget framework. This will bring new openings for EU borrowing, some more options for debt repayment and will change the redistributional effect of the EU Budget for Member States.

On our online briefing call, Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed the impact of the EU budget proposal for markets, looking in particular at three questions:

What does the new EU budget mean for EU issuance targets after NGEU runs out?
Will repayment of principal begin in 2028 or are we likely to see debt being rolled over?
What is the redistributional effect of the EU budget?

23 July 2025

20-minute trade conflict update: are we any closer to a deal?

Negotiations between the EU and the US are ongoing ahead of a new 2 August cliff edge.
On our regular Wednesday call, we explored where the talks are at, the likelihood of a deal and the possible landing zone.

We discussed the latest developments and what is likely to happen next:

What are the latest developments in talks?
What to watch out for in the next week?
What is our base case for the result of negotiations?

18 July 2025

The EU budget revolution?

The reform of the EU budget is the legacy project for Commission President von der Leyen. This week’s proposal is expected to set out deep changes to EU funding both for corporates as well as in cohesion policy.

In this briefing call, Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed what will change in EU funding and what to watch in negotiations:

What is the new Competitiveness Fund?
How will cohesion policy change?
Will there be new EU taxes?
What are the main sticking points in the upcoming negotiations?

17 July 2025

Unpacking the impact of the EU AI Act and sectoral policies on financial services in the UK and the EU

In this online briefing call, Forefront Advisers Managing Director Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina and Julian Cunningham-Day, Partner, Technology, Media & Telecommunications at Linklaters discussed:

What’s next for the EU AI Act? What implementing rules are still in the pipeline?
Will financial services firms fine-tuning AI models be treated like AI providers under EU law?
What’s the impact on crypto and other digital assets players?
How will the AI Act apply (or not) in the UK?
What’s the Bank of
England’s and FCA’s appetite for deploying UK-specific AI rules in finance?
What’s the interaction between the AI Act, DORA, UK’s CTP regime, and PRA & FCA operational resilience rules?
What’s the UK Treasury planning on AI in finance?
How likely are the FSB and IOSCO to consider global risk mitigation measures?
Can MRM-style frameworks help monitor systemic AI risks?

16 July 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

The 9 July deadline has come and gone, but no deal has been agreed. Instead, Trump is now threatening a 30% tariff level on the EU after 1 August. Is a deal still doable? And what’s a likely landing zone for trade talks now?

We discussed the latest developments and what is likely to happen next:

What are the latest developments in talks?
What to watch out for in the next week?
What is our base case for the result of negotiations?

9 July 2025

Labour fiscal discussion
Location: London

9 July 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

It is deadline day, so what has been agreed and what is still on the table? There has been a lot of last-minute movement on EU-US trade talks, which we unpacked during this call.

We discussed:

What concessions was the EU able to obtain?
What is the EU giving up in return?
Have the car manufacturers taken things into their own hands?
What are the problems left to be resolved?
What is the timeline for talks going forward?
How big is the risk that the deal will still fall apart?

4 July 2025

Pushback against the Green Deal – how far is it going to go?

The Commission’s clumsy management of the Green Claims file has escalated the debate on dialling down the Green Deal.
In our Friday online briefing call, Managing Directors Dustin Benton and Gergely Polner assessed how far this is going to go.

They focused on dissecting the different elements of the Green Deal’s rollback, including:

How much of the rollback is driven by the EU-US trade talks?
To what extent is decarbonisation being rolled back?
How far regulators are willing to go to stop deindustrialisation in Europe?
Is there a populist tipping point – a European gilets jaunes moment – that will cause the whole Green Deal effort to fail?

3 July 2025

Breakfast roundtable on Hungary
Location: London

2 July 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

With one week to go until the 9 July deadline, we assessed progress in the talks, the possible scenarios for next week and the main pointers. We also looked at the expected next steps for each scenario, including what kind of retaliation we should expect if things to sideways.

We covered the three main questions:

What are the latest developments across EU-US and UK-US negotiations?
What is our base case going forward and do new developments change our base case?
What to watch out for in the next week?

June

30 June 2025

Taking stock of the new green state aid regime
Location: Brussels

27 June 2025

5% for defence: the implications for NATO members

France and Germany last spent 5% of GDP on defence in the early 1960s. The UK managed to do so until the early 1980s, but since then even the US only managed 5% of GDP on defence at the height of its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2009-2010.

If the spending pledges are met, this will be the Zeitenwende that Olaf Scholz promised in 2022.

In this online briefing call, Manager Directors Christopher Glück, James Nation OBE, and Dustin Benton discussed:

The headline commitments made at the NATO summit, and what this means for the US in NATO
The contrasting picture for Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Poland
The implications of defence spending for domestic growth
What 1.5% defence adjacent spending could mean in practice.
The UK’s strategic positioning on China

25 June 2025

The ‘Road to Tokenisation’ – regulatory and infrastructure triggers

In the third webinar of our series on tokenisation, we assessed how the global regulatory environment is evolving to adapt to market forces and domestic needs across different jurisdictions.

Industry participants have articulated a compelling case for embedding DLT in a modern capital markets strategy. But in practice, moving from various proofs of concept to structural reform will require overcoming a patchwork of regulatory, infrastructural and market barriers.

Regulators are assessing options on how to change financial regulations to remove barriers to tokenisation. Some requirements may have to be scrapped, including requirements on clearing and settlement, but this poses the question of what new guardrails are needed.

We were delighted to be joined by Isadora Arredondo, Global Policy Director at Hedera and Hugo Coelho Head of Digital Policy and Regulation at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF). Hugo is leading a comparative research project on digital asset regulation.

To kick off the conversation, we discussed how current sandboxes and other innovation initiatives in key jurisdictions compare, before taking deep dives into the following topics:

What asset classes are more likely to be tokenised, and how do these differ across jurisdictions?
What’s the regulatory stance towards different settlement assets across jurisdictions?
What’s the regulatory stance towards permissioned vs permissionless blockchain?
Will tokenisation hinder or increase competition in financial services?
Would infrastructure (e.g. unified ledger) be the main determinant?
What role will financial market infrastructure providers play?

25 June 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

The European Commission reports positive momentum from technical talks but is increasingly concerned that time is running out even for an in-principle agreement ahead of the 9 July deadline. Brussels is now considering increasing leverage by threatening new retaliation.

In this week’s 20-minute trade catch-up, we discussed the latest developments and assess our base case.

We covered the three main questions:

What are the latest developments across EU-US and UK-US negotiations?
What is our base case going forward and do new developments change our base case?
What to watch out for in the next week?

20 June 2025

Can Merz deliver the German economic turnaround?

The Government has promised that by summer, German companies will again feel optimistic about Germany’s economic outlook. This week’s draft 2025 budget will be the first big step to achieving this.

During our briefing call, Managing Director Christopher Glück set out the main ideas for an economic rebound in the Merz government and the main risk to delivering them, including:

How has the Merz government performed so far?
What are the main ideas in the 2025 and 2026 budget? How much spending will hit the markets and by when?
What are the main risks to watch?

19 June 2025

Germany breakfast roundtable – infrastructure and defence
Location: London

18 June 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

The EU is increasingly optimistic about the progress achieved in technical talks, but it all depends on the nod from the White House.

In our catch-up this week, we looked at what happened at the G7 meeting and what it means for the next weeks ahead of the 9 July deadline.

We covered the three main questions:

What are the latest developments across EU-US and UK-US negotiations?
What is our base case going forward and do new developments change our base case?
What to watch out for in the next week?

13 June 2025

What to expect from the G7 summit?

The G7 Leaders’ Summit starting on 15 June will be a fork in the road for a series of trade talks with the US. Not only EU leaders but also President Sheinbaum of Mexico and PM Modi of India will be organising their own huddles with President Trump (unless he cancels at the last minute).

In this briefing call, Managing Directors Gergely Polner and James Nation discussed the likely next steps, including:

What’s the choreography of the G7 summits? How will the hosts Canada want to get the most out of it?
What’s the EU’s offer to Trump?
Is there anything the participants can agree on regarding China?

12 June 2025

Spending Review: the Forefront verdict

On 11 June, Rachel Reeves delivered the first multi-year Spending Review (SR) of this Parliament, where she allocated funding for the full range of Government Departments.

In this briefing call, Managing Directors James Nation and Dustin Benton gave you a rundown of the key decisions, covering:

The overall story and how well Rachel Reeves did in landing it
Winners and losers in the Cabinet
The reaction from the Labour Party and the response from the Opposition, both Conservative and Reform
Where we expect the Government to go next on policy, and what the SR decisions tell us about areas like infrastructure, industrial strategy, and energy
Any clues on what Reeves might opt to do in the autumn when it comes to the big judgments on tax and fiscal policy

11 June 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

In our 20-minute trade conflict updates this week, we looked at the state of the talks as we are nearing the first big fork in the road around the G7 summit.

We covered the three main questions:

What are the latest developments across EU-US and UK-US negotiations?
What is our base case going forward and do new developments change our base case?
What to watch out for in the next week?

6 June 2025

What’s next on Russia sanctions and Ukraine ceasefire talks?

Ceasefire talks have seemingly lost momentum since the European initiative last month. Brussels is preparing its 18th sanctions package and is trying to convince the US to adopt more energy sanctions as well

In this briefing call, Managing Directors Gergely Polner and Christopher Glück discussed the likely next steps, including:

What is in the 18th sanctions package and when will it be adopted?
Have we reached peak Russia sanctions in the EU or is there scope for more?
What’s the likelihood of more US sanctions?
Are real ceasefire talks on the cards?
How would the EU react to Hungary objecting to sanction packages?

5 June 2025

What’s Next for Europe’s AI Infrastructure – Energy, Demand and Investment Risk Factors

In this briefing call, Forefront Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, James Nation and Dustin Benton explored these developments, covering:

What do we know so far about the EU’s infrastructure targets under the AI Continent and Cloud & AI Development Acts?
How does it compare to the UK’s AI Strategy ambition?
What role will public funding play, and what share of investment must be de-risked via private capital?
Will there be sufficient commercial demand to justify this growth of AI capacity by 2035 – in both the EU and the UK?
How are energy supply and sustainability constraints shaping investor sentiment, and what are the grid risks for flagship projects?
How are national governments approaching planning, site selection and procurement for digital infrastructure buildout?
What role with the UK’s new AI Energy Council play in this process?

4 June 2025

20-minute trade conflict update

In this briefing call, we looked at the state of the talks, how the EU is thinking about the legal challenges to Trump’s liberation day tariffs and the question of trade diversion and safeguards.

We covered the three main questions:

What are the latest developments across EU-US and UK-US negotiations?
What is our base case going forward and do new developments change our base case?
What to watch out for in the next week?

3 June 2025

Looking ahead to the Spending Review: can Reeves recover?

In this briefing call. Managing Directors James Nation and Dustin Benton looked ahead to the SR, what to expect, what it means, and where the story goes next. In particular:

What’s the overall story of this SR, across both capital and day-to-day spending?
Who do we expect to be the relative winners and losers?
What will the outlook be for the Government’s policy on long-term infrastructure investment, energy, and industrial strategy off the back of the SR?
What will the SR tell us about the relationship between Number 10 and Number 11?
What does it reveal about the overall state of fiscal and economic policy in the UK and the political future of Rachel Reeves?

3 June 2025

Brussels Summer Party
Location: Brussels

May

30 May 2025

Outlook for EU and UK defence spending

Defence will come sharply back into focus ahead of the NATO summit in June.

Managing Directors James Nation and Christopher Glück unpacked the latest on defence spending across the EU and the UK, we covered:

The roll-out plans in different countries for the additional support for defence already announced, and how these match up against some of the press headlines
The latest on the scope for EU-UK cooperation on defence, including access to the Commission’s SAFE mechanism
Some examples of the accounting tricks underway to get close to the current NATO total
Our expectations for the NATO summit in June
Where, realistically, the EU and the UK could go next to create more fiscal space for defence expenditure or whether there’s no room

28 May 2025

20-minute trade conflict catch-up

Managing Directors Gergely Polner, James Nation and Christopher Glück took you through the latest developments and what to expect within 20 minutes.

23 May 2025

How the US still hopes to build an anti-China alliance

The UK-US trade deal last week – on UK analysis – saved the economy around £6.5bn in avoided tariffs, including on the UK’s beleaguered steel sector.

In our Friday morning briefing, we looked at what the UK’s agreed to in return, with a focus on ‘national security’ supply chain restrictions, covering:

What the UK agreed to on national security, China, and the steel industry
What the implications are for other sectors that matter for the US, including pharmaceuticals and energy
Whether the UK is at risk of getting caught between US demands and its global trade agenda
What all this means for any future EU-US deal

21 May 2025

20-minute trade conflict catch-up

Managing Directors Gergely Polner, James Nation and Christopher Glück took you through the latest developments and what to expect within 20 minutes.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

20 May 2025

Roundtable: AI Continent Strategy and Cloud and AI Development Act
Location: Brussels

20 May 2025

EU-UK summit debrief

Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen met in London for a summit meeting yesterday to conclude an agreement on the EU-UK relationship.

The thrust of the agreement was on defence, but we also saw explicit commitments to further negotiations on trade and other issues, including alignment on SPS and the Emissions’ Trading Schemes.

Forefront Managing Directors James Nation and Christopher Glück gave our reaction and set out what we expect to happen next on both the politics and the economics.

16 May 2025

The EU-UK summit: how close can London get to the single market?

We discussed the content and the red lines of the expected agreement and took a look at next steps in the Brexit reset with our Managing Directors James Nation and Christopher Glück. Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina also joined to brief on the impact for digital services, possible areas of cooperation and where we see trouble brewing.

15 May 2025

Unpacking Europe’s AI Continent Action Plan

Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina and Dustin Benton discussed technology sovereignty dynamics surrounding the EU new AI Continent strategy, how the Commission is looking to stimulate investments into AI and digital infrastructure, in what form the EUCS-type restrictions are likely to manifest in the Cloud and AI Development Act, and what this means for the investment community and industries. We will also look at the evolving considerations for energy and sustainability requirements for AI models and data centres.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

14 May 2025

Roundtable: Brexit reset and the outlook for the EU-UK summit
Location: London

14 May 2025

20-minute trade conflict catch-up

Our Managing Directors Gergely Polner, James Nation and Christopher Glück took you through the latest developments and what to expect within 20 minutes.

13 May 2025

Navigating CSRD’s postponement and the 3-wave implementation

Following the release of the simplification omnibus proposal, several challenges surrounding the implementation of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) are emerging. As its implementation timeline evolves with the recent adoption of the “stop-the-clock” proposal, several key issues are worth further discussion.

We had the pleasure of discussing those matters with Paul Hastings’ ESG & Sustainable Finance expert lawyers.

The exchange focused on the following aspects:

Level Playing Field Issue: We will analyse the potential disparities arising from the staggered implementation timelines among the first, second, and third waves of companies. Specifically, we will address the two-year delay for the second and third waves compared to the first wave’s reporting deadline in 2025 for FY 2024. Furthermore, we will explore the potential disadvantages faced by first-wave companies in Member States that have transposed the directive compared to those in Member States yet to do so.

The transposition challenge in Member States and delayed implementation: Whereas not every Member State has completed the transposition of the CSRD on time, we will examine the implications for companies operating across different Member States, particularly those active in jurisdictions that have not yet fully integrated the CSRD into their national legal frameworks. The instruments at the disposal of the Commission to guarantee a timely implementation and prevention of gold-plating will also be discussed.

9 May 2025

What to expect from the new German Government?

The new German Government finally took office this week and Chancellor Merz is beginning his mandate with trips to Paris and Warsaw.

On our Friday call, Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed who will matter in the Government, what to expect in Europe and domestically and what to watch out for.

8 May 2025

Breaking down the UK’s long-awaited crypto legislation: key issues and open questions

We hosting a webinar with Grace Wyatt, a Partner at Addleshaw Goddard, and Perry Scott, Head of UK Policy for Kraken to discuss the draft approach including:

Where crypto-assets sit in the overall UK financial services framework;
How the UK will define and regulate stablecoins;
The impact on non-UK stablecoins, including USD-denomianted stablecoins;
The UK’s approach to cross-border business models and operations; and
Staking and lending rules, where the UK has a ‘first-mover advantage’.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

7 May 2025

Roundtable: UK reform dinner
Location: London

7 May 2025

20-minute trade conflict catch-up

Managing Directors Gergely Polner, James Nation and Christopher Glück took you through the latest developments and what to expect within 20 minutes.

2 May 2025

UK politics – snap view on local elections and what comes next

Forefront Advisers Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation unpacked what the results we’ve had so far mean and, stepping back from locals, where UK politics then goes next.

April

30 April 2025

20-minute trade conflict catch-up

Our Managing Directors Gergely Polner, James Nation and Christopher Glück took you through the latest developments and what to expect within 20 minutes.

25 April 2025

What to expect from the EU-UK summit?

Managing Directors James Nation, Dustin Benton and Christopher Glück discussed what is on the cards, what remains far-fetched and what to watch out for, including:

What are the deliverables for the 19 May summit?
What’s the best-case outcome on trade and defence integration over the next six months?
What are the main difficulties to overcome?
What to watch out for ahead of 19 May?

16 April 2025

Will Europe and China get closer in response to Trump?

This briefing call provided an update on the chances of a European reset with China.

Both EU and UK policymakers are considering how to work with China in response to Trump. We provided our assessment on the probability of a reset and the key pointers to watch, including:

Are we seeing increased coordination between Chinese and EU/UK policymakers?
What would a reset with China entail?
What are the main tension points that could be resolved?
What’s the impact on specific sectors like tech, electric vehicles, renewables, medical products?

11 April 2025

The Trade Wars begin

Forefront Managing Directors provided an assessment of all the developments this week, following the imposition of the additional tariffs on 9 April. We covered:

What next from the EU and when on retaliatory measures
What we can expect next by way of sectoral tariffs, including on pharmaceuticals and what the impact might be
Updates on plans for negotiations between the EU and the US
The response from the UK Government and updates on negotiations between the US and the UK

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

10 April 2025

Roundtable: UK Defence
Location: London

7 April 2025

Crypto as an asset class – new products, new activities, new policy questions

We were delighted to be joined by Anthony Bassili, Head of Asset Allocators for Coinbase Institutional and Duncan Moir, President of 21Shares. Alongside our Managing Director Matt Gravelle, they discussed:

How the development of crypto ETFs in the US is impacting consumer appetite and policy thinking globally.
The prospect for the EU and UK to move forward with consumer-facing crypto products, particularly investment funds, and the hurdles they face, including regulation and tax.
How institutions are changing their approach to crypto, both as principals (buying BTC) and intermediaries (meeting client demand). How are they thinking about security, technology, and reputation risk? Has MiCA changed the calculations?
Market developments around crypto collateral and lending, and how regulation will shape it – including capital requirements via Basel.
How different types of entities (banks vs hedge funds, family offices vs corporates) are thinking about crypto strategy and how it may differ between regulated and unregulated firms.
How the proposal for a US crypto strategic reserve is filtering through to the market – will it change anything? Will other jurisdictions follow suit?

4 April 2025

The factors influencing UK-EU trade negotiations

In this online briefing call, Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, James Nation and Dustin Benton discussed:

How the British government sees its negotiating hand, in light of EU defence commitments and Reeves’ fiscal constraints
What the energy and climate offer is likely to be
Whether the UK will end up aligning with the US or EU on digital policy
Whether, in fact, fishing will be the key factor in the future relationship

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

2 April 2025

Roundtable: Technology sovereignty in the time of geopolitical uncertainty: simplification or de-regulation?
Location: Brussels

March

28 March 2025

EU-US trade war: tech sovereignty and retaliation in services

Our Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina and Gergely Polner explored:

What instruments the Commission could deploy if Brussels wanted to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs through technology policy
If US professional services and technology companies would be brought into scope of the transatlantic trade wars
The key watch factors between now and mid-April
Whether the EU can follow the UK route focused on tech partnerships and concessions vs retaliation

27 March 2025

UK fiscal policy: Spring forecast wrap-up

The day after the Spring Statement and forecasts, UK Politics Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation assessed what we learned and the impact that has on how we see the rest of the year unfolding.
They covered defence spending, tax rises, the Chancellor’s fiscal rules and the Autumn Budget.

21 March 2025

UK fiscal policy: Autumn Budget

Ahead of next week’s Spring Forecast and Statement from the Government, our Managing directors James McBride and James Nation discussed speculation and the Autumn Budget later in the year, including what Reeves may have to do if she finds herself in fiscal difficulties again. They covered:

The timing, scope and design of future tax increases
The possible impact of the OBR Forecast Evaluation report and possible impact of the OBR’s new forecast powers
The future of the fiscal rules, the future of the Chancellor and the politics of fiscal policy

21 March 2025

From black zero to hero? What to expect from Friedrich Merz’s coalition?

Our Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed the key questions with James Nation:

Is the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition built on a common project?
What are the main guiding lines and agreements?
Who will take the top jobs and what to expect from them?
How will all the money be spent?
What does the coalition want to achieve in the EU?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

18 March 2025

Roundtable: European growth and competitiveness in a new geopolitical reality
Location: London

14 March 2025

UK fiscal policy: Summer Spending Review

Our Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation discussed the Spending Review on 11 June, including the fiscal envelope that will be set at the spring forecasts. They covered:

Spending Review principles, process and timelines
Protected and non-protected departmental outlook
Defence spending, rearmament banks and fiscal rules

14 March 2025

Trade Wars – return of the tariffs

Managing Directors Christopher Glück, James Nation and Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina set out Forefront’s base case for tariff talks, the timelines and what to watch in this briefing call. They covered:

What’s the timeline for new tariffs and negotiations?
Why is the mood in Brussels hardening?
Which US goods will be hit by new EU tariffs?
What’s the chance of a quick deal?
How is the UK looking at this?
And could Prime Minister Starmer be the new intermediary?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

13 March 2025

Roundtable: Next steps on the Omnibus Proposal – the Council view
Location: Brussels

7 March 2025

UK fiscal policy: Spring forecasts

Our Managing Directors James McBride and James Nation discussed the economic and fiscal outlook, covering the impact on headroom and how Reeves is likely to respond, including:

OBR forecast principles, process and timelines
Growth, inflation and receipts outlook
Capital spend, day-to-day spend and welfare spend

7 March 2025

‘Weeks where decades happen’ – taking stock on Defence, Germany, Ukraine and Trade

It’s unclear whether Lenin ever said that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” He certainly would have, had he lived through 2025.

Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Gergely Polner took stock of the main developments after the European Council meeting and set out what to expect next, including:

What to make of Germany’s fiscal revolution?
Von der Leyen’s defence package – is the EU rising to the occasion?
What’s next on Ukraine ceasefire talks?
When will Trump’s tariff bonanza hit Europe?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

5 March 2025

Roundtable: UK fiscal breakfast with Phil Aldrick
Location: London

4 March 2025

European defence investment

On our online briefing call, Managing Directors Christopher Glück, Gergely Polner and James Nation provided our key predictions on both defence funding and Ukraine supplies, including:

How long can Ukraine continue without US supplies? What are the immediate impacts?
What will happen with Germany’s defence and infrastructure fund?
What does the EU REARM plan mean in practice?
Will this kill off fiscal space for other priorities like the green deal?
What’s the UK’s role in a European defence investment plan?

February

28 February 2025

A simple guide to simplification

On our online briefing call, our EU politics experts discussed what the EU’s simplification approach means and what its future might hold, including:

What’s proposed to be changed in the initial announcements, focusing on CSRD/ESRS, CSDDD and the EU Taxonomy
The proposed changes to reporting under the InvestEU Fund
How the Commission proposes to change the EU’s CBAM
A forward look at upcoming simplification measures
What the simplification will mean for digital policy, data and AI

27 February 2025

Next steps on digital assets and AI regulation for financial services in Europe

The EU has been a frontrunner in regulating digital assets and is now debating how to implement and refine existing rules.

We were delighted to be joined by Peter Kerstens, Co-chair of the European Commission’s Taskforce on Fintech and Advisor to the Director-General for financial stability and cybersecurity.

25 February 2025

German coalition talks and the future of the debt brake with Martin Greive, Handelsblatt

We were delighted to welcome back Martin Greive, Deputy Head of the Berlin office of the leading German business newspaper Handelsblatt and one of the most distinguished observers of German economic policy for a discussion on what to expect from the next German Government.

Martin Greive has covered several German coalition talks, has travelled with outgoing Chancellor Scholz and followed the developments in German fiscal policy closely over the past years.

24 February 2025

What’s next after the German elections?

Managing Director Christopher Glück gave a first readout of the election results and discuss next steps, including:

Who will form the likely next Government?
How long will coalition talks last and what are the critical points?
Will Germany change its debt brake?
What should we expect from the next German government in the EU and foreign affairs?

21 February 2025

What’s the role of energy in the Ukraine talks?

We addressed what is driving high energy costs, whether it is likely that Russian gas flows return to the EU, and how the price of oil plays into all of this, including:

What is the main driver of high energy costs in Europe and what are the current plans to bring costs down?
Could gas from Russia be switched back on and what would be the impact? Would a return to Russian gas delay the energy transition and renew dependency on Russia?
How does the oil price come into play and why is Trump eager to involve Saudi Arabia in the talks?
How does Trump’s demand for Europe to buy more American LNG play into the debate?

19 February 2025

Online briefing call: What’s next for Ukraine and Germany

We were delighted to welcome back Nico Lange for a briefing call. We discussed his takeaways from the Munich Security conference, his predictions for Ukraine and for the German elections, including:

What are the chances of a ceasefire in Ukraine? What are the key drivers to watch?
How will European defence spending shift over the coming years?
Will Europe be able to boost its defence production and military readiness?
What’s the most likely coalition in Germany and how should we think about the German fiscal pathway?
What’s Merz’s European policy?

14 February 2025

Online briefing call: EU plans for a defence spending boost

EU leaders are under pressure to deliver a defence spending increase of at least 1% of GDP. This requires big changes in the EU’s fiscal framework. Commission President von der Leyen is already suggesting radical ideas: a suspension of national fiscal rules and a reworked EU budget.

Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed what to expect from the debate, the timeline and the likely outcome, including:

What are the options to increase defence spending in Europe?
How is Brussels trying to engineer the defence boost and what are the consequences for social spending?
How would a suspension of fiscal rules work?
Is new EU borrowing an option?
What can be done with the EU budget?

13 February 2025

Online briefing call: Next steps in the Land Use Framework

Last week, the Government published its consultation on a Land Use Framework for England. While the media coverage focused on its implications for farmers, we think it is equally interesting in what it hopes to do to support the infrastructure – energy and water – and housing that the UK needs to grow and decarbonise. To get beneath the surface of the subject, we hosted Defra’s Head of Land Use for a roundtable on 4 February. For those who were unable to attend in person, we’re running a short webinar to recap on the key insights. Forefront Sustainability Managing Director Dustin Benton reviewed:

How Government insiders see the aims of the Land Use Framework
Whether a successful Land Use Framework will speed up development without sparking a further ‘green vs growth’ conflict
The extent to which land value is affected by the LUF
How much land use change is foreseen by Government, and where

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

12 February 2025

Roundtable: German election scenarios and fiscal policy impact
Location: London

11 February 2025

Online briefing call: Tokenisation – looking inside the numbers

In the first webinar of our series on tokenisation, we discussed:

What are the numbers behind the DLT trials?
What did we learn from the trials? What are the main conclusions?
What are the assets that are ready to scale?
How to create liquidity in the market?
What are the regulatory changes that would be most helpful?

7 February 2025

Online briefing call: Friedrich Merz – who is the next German Chancellor?

With only two weeks to go until the German elections, it is increasingly clear that Friedrich Merz will be the next German Chancellor. Throughout his campaign he made clear that he wants to play a leadership role on the European level and accused Chancellor Scholz of negligence. But what is he all about, what is his vision for Europe and how will Germany’s role in the EU change under Merz?

In this briefing call, our Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed everything you need to know about the next German Chancellor, including:

What’s the state of the race and what could still change until election day?
What does Merz want to achieve as Chancellor?
What does Merz think about the EU? What is possible and what are the red lines when it comes to European fiscal and defence integration?
How does Merz picture German leadership in the EU?

6 February 2025

Online briefing call: UK AI Strategy – the way forward

The UK Government has unveiled its long-awaited National Artificial Intelligence Strategy – in response to Matt Clifford’s AI Opportunities Action Plan. Ambitious in its growth agenda, the approach leaves many implementation details undefined – particularly on the funding for the compute capacity needed to “turbocharge” AI. How will this plan play out in practice? We’ve spent the past few days talking to industry leaders and Whitehall insiders to unpack these questions.

Forefront Advisers Managing Directors Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, James Nation and Dustin Benton discussed:

What are concrete implementation measures under the AI Opportunities Action Plan going to look like? What are the gaps?
What impact will it have on various sectors – from financial services to automotive – prioritised under the Government’s new Industrial Strategy?
How can it deliver growth without plummeting more fiscal holes in the struggling economy? Where will the funding come from?
What can and should AI Energy Council do? Is it yet another platform for a cross-industry chit chat or can they walk the talk?
How will this AI strategy sit across regulatory priorities – on AI Safety, copyright and data, as well as recently more politically charged competition agenda in the digital markets?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

5 February 2025

Roundtable: EU response to Trump and Xi
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

4 February 2025

Roundtable: Land Use Framework
Location: London

January

31 January 2025

Online briefing call: The Brexit reset – are we any clearer on what both sides want
In our online briefing call, Forefront Managing Directors Gergely Polner and James Nation unpacked the latest developments and asked:

What is the latest on talks on greater defence and security cooperation within the EU? What about the prospects for greater UK-EU collaboration?
What is the view from Brussels on how prepared the UK is for discussions on an economic reset, ahead of Starmer’s visit next week?
What is the latest from London on what exactly the Labour Government is hoping to achieve and what’s been the reaction to, forexample, the Commission floating the UK’s membership of the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?
Where does the EU-UK reset rank in terms of priorities for EU leaders right now?
Stepping back, what do we think the Trump Presidency means for the overall EU-UK relationship?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

29 January 2025

Roundtable: The Trump impact on Europe and UK – initial assessment
Location: London

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

28 January 2025

Roundtable: Deep dive on German election polling
Location: Brussels

24 January 2025

Deregulation or Desperation? Prospects for growth in the UK and the EU
Forefront Managing Directors James Nation, Dustin Benton and Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina unpacked the latest developments:

What’s the latest on the response to the Draghi report in Europe?
What are the prospects for significant progress on Omnibus this year and in what areas?
What’s been the reaction to the UK’s AI Action Plan and how well is the UK positioned given Trump’s first moves in the US and the ongoing debate over AI regulation in Europe?
Just what is the Labour Government up to on deregulation? Are they clear on what they want economic regulators to do and what can we expect to see?
Does the focus on regulation distract from a focus on other areas of policy that will impact on competitiveness e.g. the outlook for energy?

17 January 2025

The US challenge to EU regulatory autonomy
In the week before Donald Trump’s inauguration, we are continuing our series of briefing calls on the upcoming economic conflicts with the US. This Friday we are turning to the question of how the Trump administration will try, and partly succeed, to interfere with European national sovereignty and regulatory autonomy.

The challenges will range from payments policy to digital services taxes and digital regulation to reporting requirements, alongside many other areas.

Our Managing Directors discussed:

Where could regulatory autonomy come under pressure?
How much of this is the EU prepared to accept in the context of trade negotiations and where would the EU need to draw a line?
What are the options for the EU to respond?
What are the internal trade-offs in charting a response that the EU needs to resolve?

16 January 2025

UK fiscal policy latest
With ongoing developments in the bond market and speculation around the likelihood of the Chancellor meeting her fiscal rules, join Forefront UK Politics Managing Directors James Nation and James McBride as they unpack the latest developments ahead of the OBR’s forecast in March.

In a live online briefing at 10am on Thursday 16 January, they shared:

The latest on the thinking in the Treasury
The internal views in Government on market movements
The likely choices for the Chancellor as she makes further key decisions on fiscal and economic policy this year

14 January 2025

The rise of “new” nuclear
Nuclear power is undergoing something of a renaissance, at least rhetorically. Rising power demand has seen the industry reposition itself as essential to the energy transition – with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) presented as a solution – and Europe’s shift to the right has created new champions for the technology.

But while sentiment has shifted, it’s not yet clear whether the industry will be able to respond, or whether the planning, permitting and regulatory delays the industry has complained about are likely to be changed. We discussed:

The differences between UK and EU SMR plans, and the potential implications of these
The prospects of nuclear restarts in Europe, particularly in Germany
Whether datacentre demand is the key to new nuclear power
The Trump administration’s approach to nuclear, and the implications for Europe

10 January 2025

Europe’s response to Trump and Xi
In the first online briefing call of the year, we focused on the European plans to respond to the US and China, specifically on what we expect the EU to do on trade and on economic security. Our Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Gergely Polner discussed:

What are the measures by the new US Administration that would have the biggest impact on Europe? Is it tariffs or US sanctions and export controls?
What’s the EU toolkit on trade defence and how it could be applied to the US and to China?
How could an EU-US deal look like and what’s the timing?
What’s the impact of the Ukraine war on the trade talks?

2024 Events Overview

December

13 December 2024

2025 Lookahead: The key challenges and decisions for Europe

As 2024 is drawing to a close, we are taking 30 minutes to set out the key questions to watch in 2025 across Europe.

We discussed what to expect from the first year of von der Leyen’s second mandate, the impact of new Trump tariffs and Ukraine peace talks on the EU, national elections in Germany, Poland and most likely France, and the big regulatory developments to watch.

12 December 2024

The carbon constraints that will shape EU food and farming policy

The new EU commission is due to set out its vision for food and agriculture in its first 100 days. The early debate over the future of CAP has already begun. Bound up in these are issues of wider importance for any company expecting to use carbon removals to offset their emissions.

In this briefing call, we discussed:

How the EU’s Fit for 55 targets will shape emissions reductions need from the food sector
How this year’s farming protests risk storing up problems for the next CAP
Whether EU carbon targets are achievable without politically challenging land use change
The prospect that other sectors will need to decarbonise faster by 2030

12 December 2024

2025 Lookahead: Emerging technology policy

With the new European Commission in office and Labour sharpening its priorities post-budget ahead of the spending review, we are looking at how the technology policy landscape in the EU and UK is set to shape up in the coming months.

Key questions include:

Will Trump’s return reshape the diverging approaches to technology sovereignty in Brussels and London, and what will this mean for digital trade?
How will critical providers and digital infrastructure companies navigate direct regulatory enforcement under overlapping horizontal and sector-specific rules?
Can competition policy adapt to foster innovations that scale European industrial leadership globally?
How will AI energy efficiency drive the regulatory and implementation agenda for emerging technologies?

11 December 2024

2025 lookahead: The key issues for digital assets
With MiCA coming into force, the UK consulting on the details of its own crypto regulatory framework and new legislation expected in the US, this will be a critical 12 months in shaping the regulatory and supervisory landscape for digital assets firms in the EU and UK.

Managing Directors Gergely Polner, Matt Gravelle and Director Conor Sewell looked at the key developments that will affect your business and how we expect the year to play out.

6 December 2024

EU-US tariff debate sequencing – when will Trump tariffs hit and how will the EU respond?
The first big challenge for the new Commission will be to chart the EU’s response to new Trump tariffs.

During this week’s Friday morning briefing call, we looked at how the Commission wants to negotiate with Trump, which sectors we think will be impacted and what Brussels could be offering to Trump:

What is the likely timeline for new tariffs and what are the likely sectors?
How would the EU respond and what can Brussels offer?
Who will negotiate on behalf of the EU?
What if Trump isn’t looking to negotiate?

5 December 2024

What to expect from the next German Government?

The next German Government will almost certainly be led by the centre-right CDU/CSU.

We are delighted to welcome Thomas Silberhorn for a conversation on what to expect from the next Government across defence spending and foreign affairs. Thomas Silberhorn is an influential MP for the CSU and acted as deputy defence minister for Ursula von der Leyen and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer during the final term of Angela Merkel.

We discussed:

What is the CDU/CSU’s plan for the German and European defence industry?
What challenges exist for the German military and how much spending will be required until the end of the decade?
How does the CDU/CSU intend to address the challenges posed by President Trump?
Can Germany assume a new leadership role in Europe?

4 December 2024

Green Policy: What’s next for the UK and EU?
This week, the new commission has started work in Brussels, and Keir Starmer is reframing his Government’s missions. On both sides of the channel, green policymaking is set to resume.

In this briefing call, we looked ahead at the policies to expect action on in the next few months, and the likely pace of progress in key files, including:

How the EU and UK will attempt to solve (or otherwise) the energy price problem that is common across Europe
What content underpins the circular economy, which is seen on both sides of the Channel as a way of combining green with competitiveness
The UK and EU’s big pending problems on water that they have been reluctant to act on
Why diet change could help both public finances and sustainability, and why policy in this area has previously failed

2 December 2024

France latest and what’s next
Barnier’s Government faces an early end as the French Prime Minister engages in a tug-of-war with far-right leader Marine Le Pen over the shape of the 2025 budget.

Already Barnier has made some key concessions on electricity taxation and funding healthcare for foreigners. However, Le Pen has said this does not go far enough.

In this briefing call, we addressed the latest situation, how long Barnier has left and the likely future scenarios to set out what will come next.

November

29 November 2024

The first 100 days of the new Commission – what to expect?
On 1 December, a new Commission will take office. It won’t be short of immediate challenges ranging from the slowing economy and the energy transition to international pressures on trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

During this briefing call, we looked at what to expect from the first 100 days and what to watch out for as the Commissioners establish a new informal hierarchy, including:

What are von der Leyen’s key deliverables in the first 100 days?
Who will and who won’t matter in the new college of Commissioners?
How is the Commission preparing for trade and Ukraine funding discussions with DC?
What is the follow-up on the Draghi report and will we see new spending?

22 November 2024

EU-UK relations after the US elections – chances for a big reset?
The election of Donald Trump is changing the dynamics between London and Brussels. There is hope that external pressure will force both sides to put their disagreements aside and focus on what is doable. We think it is more likely that the two sides drift apart even further. On this briefing call, our Managing Directors Gergely Polner and James Nation discussed possible scenarios and drivers, including:

What is Keir Starmer’s strategy for transatlantic relations and the EU? What does the appointment of Europhile and former European Commissioner Peter Mandelson as US ambassador indicate?
What are the chances of a US-UK (digital) trade deal and what does it mean for the EU?
What’s the scope for cooperation on trade and defence if both sides come under pressure from Washington?
What does the EU even want from London these days?

19 November 2024

The EU’s fiscal equation: fiscal rules and EU borrowingTopic
We are delighted to be joined by Tuomas Saarenheimo, President of the Economic and Financial Committee of the EU, the body that prepares the meetings of finance ministers and promotes policy coordination among EU and Euro Area member states.

Over the past four years, Saarenheimo coordinated the negotiations on the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, the implementation of NGEU and mid-term review of the EU budget and the economic and financial sanctions against Russia, among others. He witnessed first-hand how increasing geopolitical competition has changed the policy agenda and the negotiating positions of Member States.

During this call, we discussed:

How will the EU respond to the election of a new US President?
Which proposals of the Draghi report have a chance of being agreed by Member States?
What will it take for a new program of EU borrowing to be agreed? Defence bonds? What could be its size, focus and design features?
How will Member States accommodate new spending priorities (e.g. defence, green transition, competitiveness) in the coming national and EU budgets?
How can the reformed fiscal rules apply to France, Italy and other Member States in excessive deficit procedure?

14 November 2024

What’s next for Europe’s technology sovereignty mandate?
This week, like every other policy wonk in Brussels, we’ve been watching the new commissioner confirmation hearings.

With many intertwined elements on digital and technology policy across commissioner mandates, our Managing Directors, Ksenia Duxfield-Karyakina, Dustin Benton, and Gergely Polner discussed what we have learned about the forthcoming regulatory agenda, including:

What does Technology Sovereignty 2.0 mean for Brussels? Who stands to benefit the most, and what is at stake?
Will Trump’s return to office prompt the EU to reconsider its technology sovereignty priorities?
What’s next for competition policy: will innovations arise from stronger but fewer technology champions in the Digital Single Market?
AI: is Europe moving from legislation to implementation, or is there still more left to regulate?
Green transition and clean tech: unpacking the new competitiveness agenda. Does Europe have a plan to tackle Trump’s anticipated approach?

7 November 2024

What’s next after the German coalition breakup?
Last night, the German Government coalition collapsed. Snap elections are likely to happen in March. In this briefing call, our senior political experts discussed the consequences and next steps:

What are the steps and likely timeline for new elections?
What can still be done until new elections happen?
How will Germany be able to respond to the challenges posed by a new Trump administration?
What is likely to happen after the elections?
Will there be substantial loosening of fiscal policy and a reform of the debt brake rules now that the FDP left the Government?

6 November 2024

US elections – the impact on the EU and the UK
After Donald Trump’s win in last night’s elections, we looked at the immediate consequences for Europe:

What is the EU’s contingency planning for a new trade war?
How would the EU react to the US pulling out of Ukraine funding?
Who will lead the EU response? • What to expect from this week’s European Council meeting?
How will the Labour government respond to a Trump Presidency?
What is the scope for EU-UK coordination?

4 November 2024

What’s the impact of the US elections on Europe and the UK?
Ahead of the US elections on Tuesday 5 November, our senior EU and UK politics experts provided an overview of the key impacts of the possible results and the likely response across defence, trade, climate and tech policy for either a Trump or a Harris Administration.

What do we expect in terms of new Trump tariffs and how would the EU and UK react
What is the immediate risk of Trump negotiating with Putin and what does it mean for the EU’s support to Ukraine?
Is there any chance for transatlantic market opening under a Harris Administration with either the EU or the UK?
What are the differences in climate policy and how will the EU adapt? Will we see a new Inflation Reduction Act?
What is the likely impact on the tech agenda in Washington, Brussels and London?

October

31 October 2024

Post-budget digest – key measures and surprises
In this briefing call, we addressed the key surprises and measures from the UK Budget, including:

The Government’s borrowing plans
Tax and fiscal outlook
The future of politics

25 October 2024

The Polish Council Presidency – what to expect?
From 1 January, Poland is taking over the rotating Presidency of the Council. After a difficult six months under the Hungarian Presidency, Brussels can’t wait for Donald Tusk to take over.

In this briefing call, our senior EU policy experts discussed the difficult domestic context for the Presidency, why big expectations might be overdone and what to expect, including:

What does Donald Tusk want to get out of Poland’s Presidency
Why will the election of the Polish President in May dominate all European decisions
What are the main conflicts we expect between Warsaw and Brussels?
And what is the impact on policy files?

25 October 2024

Supply-side reforms and growth plans
In this briefing call, we discussed plans to boost the productive potential of the economy, including planning reform, the labour market and Brexit.

18 October 2024

After the US elections: two extreme scenarios for supply chains
Whatever the outcome of the US Presidential elections, the next US Administration will increase the pressure on Europe to restrict Chinese (green) tech. But the differences between Harris and Trump for the future of supply chains and green tech are much bigger than is commonly assumed.
We believe two extreme scenarios which could play out after the elections: a Huawei 2.0 vs a Chinese Marshall Plan scenario – both would have big impacts on supply chains. In this briefing call, we addressed:

What to expect from a Harris and Trump administration on economic security?
How is Europe likely to respond and what does it mean for supply chains?
What are the two extreme scenarios for the future of supply chains?
Why could the US become a ‘green low tech’ island?

18 October 2025

Day-to-day spend and austerity
With the Budget – arguably the most important fiscal event for over a decade – just a few weeks away now, we will be hosting a series of briefing calls to outline our expectations.

In this briefing call, we discussed plans to plug the gap in day-to-day spend, whether ‘no return to austerity’ is realistic and the resulting fiscal impulse.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

16 October 2025

Drivers of EU volatility
Location: London

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

15 October 2024

In-person: Roundtable Discussion
US election polling and the EU’s reactions
Location: Brussels

15 October 2024

The Conservative Party leadership race
The Conservative Party leadership race moves to its final phase this week when the four current candidates get whittled down to the final two. They will be put to the Party Membership and the next leader will be announced in early November.

DeHavilland and Forefront Advisers host an online event on Tuesday 15 October from 10:00-10:30 BST to discuss the final two candidates and the challenges they face.

The discussion was led by Forefront Advisers’ new Managing Director, James Nation, who joined us from Number 10, where he was Deputy Head of the Number 10 Policy Unit, advising the Prime Minister on several areas of public policy. He was joined by DeHavilland’s UK Policy and Service Manager, Hattie Ireland, covering:

The likely differing policy positions of both candidates
Key moments and set pieces in the weeks ahead
Background on the Conservative Party membership and reflections on lessons from past races

11 October 2024

Capital spend and infrastructure
In this briefing call, we discussed plans to drive up public and private investment, the role of investment bodies such as GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund and the country’s capacity to get shovels in the ground.

11 October 2024

An EU budget revolution?
The European Commission is working on a complete overhaul of how the EU budget will work, doing away with household programmes and giving a stronger political steer to spending.

In this briefing call, Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Gergely Polner discussed what to expect and which challenges to overcome. We also looked at the direction of travel in Member States as there has been a lot of movement over the past weeks in Austria, France, Germany and Italy.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

10 October 2024

UK Budget
Location: London

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

10 October 2024

EU AI Act Myth Busters: the rights and wrongs so far
Location: Brussels

4 October 2024

The perfect storm for European carmakers – what policymakers will do about it
On this briefing call, our senior EU political experts discussed:

How policymakers think about the impossible trilemma of green transition, fiscal rules and derisking from China
Our predictions for upcoming policy choices: the EV tariffs, a potential pricing deal between the EU and China, the probability of tweaking car CO2 targets and the fines to be paid by carmakers
How China will react to the EU tariffs and what the mitigation measures by Chinese carmakers are
How the EU will treat Chinese investments

4 October 2024

Budget baseline and fiscal rules
With the Budget – arguably the most important fiscal event for over a decade – just a few weeks away now, we will be hosting a series of briefing calls to outline our expectations. In this briefing call, we discussed the OBR forecast rounds, likely headroom, changes to the fiscal rules and the scale and nature of the tax hikes.

September

27 September 2024

What to expect from the Barnier Government?
French Prime Minister Barnier and his newly appointed team have a series of challenges ahead. On our live Friday briefing call, our senior EU political experts discussed critical questions, including the survival of the Barnier Government amid confidence motions, expectations for budget negotiations, potential tax hike options, and key players to watch.

20 Sep 2024

What to expect from the new Commission?
As new Commissioner portfolios and mission letters were published this week, our Friday morning briefing focused on what to expect from the new EU term. During this briefing call, we addressed:

What to expect from the new Commission structure? What are the top jobs and who will call the shots? How is the approval process going to play out?
Digital, trade and economic security will be at the centre of the Commission’s priorities. What should we expect on this front?
The climate and energy portfolio will be split between three powerful Commissioners. What should we expect and what is the direction of travel?

13 Sep 2024

After the Draghi report, what’s next for EU borrowing?
The Draghi report has put the spotlight back on the decade-old question of Eurobonds.

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors addressed the immediate reaction to the Draghi report, what’s likely to happen next and where things are headed long-term:

Why is there so much pressure on increasing EU borrowing?
Are Draghi’s recommendations dead on arrival?
What is likely to happen short-term?
Will we see defence bonds and more EU borrowing for the next EU budget?

9 Sep 2024

The Draghi report – what’s next?
Mario Draghi presented his long-awaited report on 9 Sep, Monday, 11:00 am CET.

In this briefing call, our Managing Directors discussed:

Why does this report matter?
What are Draghi’s main proposals across competition, energy, defence, financial services, and public investment?
Which ideas are likely to materialise and what’s the timetable?
What is the follow-up on his report from the European Commission?

9 September 2024

The next French Government’s budget problem

President Macron just announced Michel Barnier as the next French Prime Minister. If Barnier is able to survive his first no-confidence vote, the main task before him will be passing the next budget.

Our lead France analyst Pascal LeTendre-Hanns and Managing Director Christopher Glück discussed the main challenges and the risk of a standoff with the European Commission, including:

What to expect from the next Government?
What is the budget situation?
How will France’s excessive deficit procedure play out?
What does Brussels expect to be done?
What’s the risk of an escalation and when would it happen?

6 September 2024

Autumn political risks
Managing Director Gergely Polner presented the political risks and opportunities for the remaining five months and addressed:

EU’s preparations for working with the next US president
Likely EU trade defence measures against China
The Ukraine peace process and upcoming EU sanctions measures
Fiscal rules implementation and the French budget
Resetting the EU-UK relationship
The first measures of a new European Commission

3 September 2024

Brussels Back to School – building the next European Commission
Our Managing Directors Gergely Polner and Christopher Glück discussed the developing structure and programme for the European Commission, the process for the coming months and what this means in practice:

Where do we stand on Commissioner nominations and what is the timeline
When is the Draghi report expected to be published?
How is von der Leyen going to deal with the gender imbalance in the Commission?
Which Commissioners are most likely to get struck out by the European Parliament?
What role is the Hungarian Council presidency going to play?
What is the timeline for the approval of the new Commission and when will the European Parliament get back to work?

July

26 July 2024

What Trump vs Harris means for the EU
Kamala Harris is now likely to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, while Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance raises concerns. Managing Directors Dea Markova and Christopher Glück explored the implications for Europe, covering key topics such as potential EU scenarios, preparations for a possible Trump 2.0, trade defense strategies, Harris’s stance on China trade, and the future of transatlantic relations.

19 July 2024

New Labour and von der Leyen 2.0: what next?
Last week, the UK and EU’s policy direction came into sharper focus. The new Labour Government outlined its legislative agenda in Wednesday’s King’s Speech, while EU President von der Leyen presented her priorities on Thursday. In this session, our experts Gergely Polner and Dustin Benton discussed what lies ahead for policy on both sides of the English Channel. The conversation was moderated by Dea Markova.

12 July 2024

The first EP plenary session – what to expect, timelines and potential surprises
This Briefing session provided key insights into the first plenary session of the European Parliament under the new mandate. Managing Directors Christopher Glück and Dea Markova covered: The agenda and key decision points for the plenary, expected outcomes of the vote on von der Leyen as Commission President, timelines for new Committee formations and MEP assignments, and effective strategies for engaging with assistants and officials.

12 July 2024

Implementing the AI Act: will regulation work?
This briefing session provided a deep dive into key tech policy developments. Managing Director Dea Markova, along with lead analysts Matteo Vittori and Daniel Morgan, explored the Commission’s priorities for implementing the AI Act. They also discussed the regulation’s impact on general-purpose and high-risk AI systems, the governance structure at both EU and national levels, and current agendas on copyright, competition, and international cooperation.

11 July 2024

Between fiscal consolidation and strategic autonomy: what’s next for the EU’s economic agenda
An exclusive online briefing with Jean-Pierre Vidal, Chief Economic Advisor to Charles Michel. This session covered the future of EU borrowing, budget priorities, fiscal rules, and the evolving EU relationships with China and the US.

8 July 2024

French elections after the second round – what to expect next?
Our Managing Director Gergely Polner and lead analyst for France, Pascal LeTendre-Hanns, analyzed the first round of elections, focusing on the performance of the polls relative to the results, the upcoming steps in government formation, and the implications for both France and the EU.

1 July 2024

Digital Assets – how is regulation changing the market?
Our digital assets senior team, Dea Markova and Conor Sewell, discussed the aftermath of the 30 June deadline for EU stablecoins to comply with MiCA. We explored how the EU plans to regulate global assets uniquely and what lessons the UK might draw as it follows suit.

1 July 2024

French elections after the first round – what to expect next?
Our Managing Director Gergely Polner and lead analyst Pascal LeTendre-Hanns reviewed the first round of voting, discussing potential majorities in the Assemblée Nationale and government formation. They covered any surprises, the likely composition of the next Assemblée, possible cooperation between Macron’s alliance and the left-wing bloc, and government formation options.

June

28 June 2024

Labour in power: The EU, Brexit and the TCA
During this briefing call, we discussed:

Labour’s Brexit policy, including how close they can get to the Single Market and Customs Unions while remaining outside of the institutions.
Labour’s defence policy, including their approach to EU initiatives like the framework for joint defence procurement.
Labour’s foreign policy, including the idea of ‘progressive realism and what it is likely to mean in practice.

27 June 2024

France-state of the race and the likely budget pathway
Our France analyst Pascal LeTendre-Hanns discussed the latest polling and political dynamic ahead of the first round. This was followed by Chris Gluck, our Brussels Managing Director presenting the potential budget pathways for France and confrontation scenarios with the EU’s fiscal framework. He also considered the impacts of the French elections on the EU agenda.

21 June 2024

Labour in power: Devolution, planning reform and machinery of government
During this briefing call, James McBride, who has a background in both the Labour Party and in Whitehall, discussed:

Labour’s planning policy, including a discretionary-led framework vs a rules-based system, Nationally Significant
Infrastructure Projects and the new grey belt.

Labour’s devolution policy, including local government, regional government and devolution of economic policy.

Labour’s changes to the machinery of government, including the abolition of some departments, the creation of others, and initiatives to get Whitehall to be more joined up.

20 June 2024

France election-updated scenarios and potential surprises
Our analysts discussed:

What do the latest polls tell us about second-round races?
Will the European Commission put France into Excessive Deficit Procedure in the middle of the campaign?
Will Le Pen continue to play by the Meloni playbook? What are the chances of a right-wing coalition?
How likely can the left implement its disruptive fiscal programme?
What would happen in a hung parliament?

14 June 2024

Which elements of the EU Green Deal could be rolled back?
During this briefing call, we discussed:

What does a ‘shift to the right ‘ mean in practice?
Which are the agreed measures that are most at risk of being rolled back? What happens to the most symbolic element, car CO2 emissions? Can we expect changes to the Emission Trading System, especially the new rules for buildings and road transport?
What about the measures still under discussion, especially the 2040 climate targets and the rules on the use of offsets and voluntary carbon markets?
How will this impact the wider issue of electrification and the funding available for grids?

14 June 2024

Labour in power: Energy, utilities and infrastructure
During this briefing call, we discussed:

Labour’s infrastructure policy, including how it will be financed, ONS classification and the fiscal rules.
Labour’s energy policy, including GB Energy, the National Wealth Fund and their approach to different types of clean energy.
Labour’s utility policy, including Thames, the water sector more broadly and economic regulation.

14 June 2024

A cross-Atlantic assessment of trade and China policies
During this briefing call, we discussed:

Dueling trade and China policies from Biden and Trump
How will the EU and the UK position themselves between the US and China?

12 June 2024

Who is likely to win the French legislative elections?
During this briefing call, we discussed:

After a spectacular defeat for Macron’s coalition in the European Parliament election, the French President
made the high-risk decision to dissolve Parliament and call snap elections.Despite Le Pen’s crushing
victory, he will be hoping that he can rally the left and the centre against the far right, but this outcome is
far from certain.

Stack Data Strategy, an international data and polling firm, provided its analysis of the race, including the reliability of public polls, the key indicators to track, and, crucially, how to interpret the first-round results on 30 June.

10 June 2024

After the EU elections-what’s next?
During this briefing call, we discussed:

What are the next key events and milestones as the new mandate starts?
When will EU leaders choose their picks for the top jobs, and who is likely to get what?
When will the European Parliament vote on the Commission President?
What is the likely coalition supporting the Commission President, and what are the trade-offs?
Which changes in the European Parliament actually matter, and who will dominate the political groups?

7 June 2024

European elections-what to watch out for?
On the Friday morning before the EU elections, our Managing Director Christopher Gluck set out the latest on polling, where polling could be wrong and what to look out for when the results come in on Sunday evening, including:

What’s the likely result on Sunday, and where could polls be wrong?
What are the most important points to watch out for in the results?
What will be the next steps after the elections, and when will we see the election of the next Commission President?

7 June 2024

Labour in power: Industrial strategy, economic security
During this briefing, we discussed:

Labour’s industrial strategy, including how it will be operationalised and which areas stand to benefit the most.
Labour’s economic security policy, including supply-chain resilience, their approach to critical raw materials and their policy towards China.
Labour’s wider business policy, including new take-over policies, restrictions on inbound investment and export
controls.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

4 June 2024

Where are EU election polls likely to be wrong?

Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

3 June 2024

Hungary’s priorities for the Council Presidency
Location: Brussels

May

31 May 2024

Labour in power: The economy, fiscal policy and supply
During this briefing call, we discussed:

Labour’s fiscal policy, including their fiscal rules, their first fiscal event and how they might go about getting the numbers to stack up.
Labour’s approach to monetary policy, including tiered remuneration and quantitative tightening and what we should expect and when.
Labour’s supply-side reforms, including why they are so important but why they will take time and political capital to get over the line.

31 May 2024

Next steps in EU-China relationship-key dates and predictions
During this briefing call, we discussed:

What are the next steps in the EU-China trade relationship?
What will be the result of the EV subsidy investigation and what’s the likely impact?
What’s the expectation in Brussels on Chinese retaliation?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

28 May 2024

Roundtable discussion with Lithuania’s EU Ambassador Arnoldas Pranckevičius
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

23 May 2024

European Parliament’s legal service: how to deal with unfinished legislative business?
Location: Brussels

22 May 2024

UK fiscal policy-before, during and after the election
During this briefing, we covered: A fiscal event before the general election: chances, timing and consequence

The general election outcome: polls, battlegrounds and majorities
A Labour Government: fiscal policy, supply-side reforms and wider economic strategy

17 May 2024

Drafting the priorities for the next EU mandate
During this briefing call, we discussed:

The state of work on the briefing books for the next Commission
The political programme of Ursula von der Leyen
The parallel discussions among EU Member States on the political priorities
What shape could an industrial deal take?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

16 May 2024

The future of responsible investment: with Canbury Insights’ Will Martindale and EC’s Martin Spolc
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

15 May 2024

Roundtable discussion with Giacomo Filibeck, Secretary General of PES
Location: Brussels

10 May 2024

Friedrich Merz-the next German Chancellor?
During this briefing call, we discussed German politics, including:

What does Friedrich Merz stand for?
What could still keep him from becoming Chancellor?
How high is the risk of snap elections this year?

7 May 2024

Labour’s first 100 days
During this briefing call, we discussed:

The politics of the first 100 days, including the nature of Starmer’s leadership, the grip he has on the party and the vision he wants to set out.
The people who will be key in this period, including the influence of different politicians, advisers and outside organisations.
The policy of the first 100 days, including the King’s Speech, Budget and spending review.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

2 May 2024

Lessons learned and what’s next on the Green Deal with Virginijus Sinkevičius
Location: Brussel

April

26 April 2024

What’s next on Ukraine funding, war scenarios and Russia sanctions?
During this briefing call, we discussed:

What are the war scenarios following the US package? Is the Russian momentum over?
What are the EU’s plans for Ukraine funding and will they keep Ukraine afloat?
What is the state of play on frozen assets and how will the money be used?
What is happening next on Russia sanctions and what could change?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

23 April 2024

Roundtable discussion With Mathieu Briens, Deputy Head of Cabinet of Josep Borrell
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

19 April 2024

What’s next for Renew Europe with Philip Drauz, Secretary General
Location: Brussels

19 April 2024

The Letta report-what will happen and what’s the impact
This briefing call addressed:

Is there anything new regarding funding for green transition and defence?
Are there plans for further loosening of state aid?
What changes are proposed in energy, financial services and telecoms sectors?
Which one of these could be implemented?

12 April 2024

The special European Council and the industrial deal – what to expect?
Managing Directors Dea Markova and Christopher Gluck addressed:

What are EU leaders likely to discuss at next week’s Council meeting?
What is the Industrial Deal and what policy measures can we expect?
How does the Draghi report play into this and what is the timeline?

5 April 2024

What next on EU-US economic security coordination?
During this briefing call, Managing Directors Dea Markova and Christopher Gluck addressed:

The outcome of the final EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC)meeting before the US elections
Will the US force Europe to adopt a tougher line on investment screening and economic security?
Has the TTC been a success and will it continue after the US elections?
What is the best and what is the worst case for transatlantic trade relations?

March

22 March 2024

Europe’s investment problem -when will we see a new EU fund?
During this briefing call, we discussed:

What’s likely to materialise and what’s the timeline for it?
How big is Europe’s investment need until the end of the decade?
Will we see a new EU debt fund?
What’s the timeline of the debate?
What will be done to incentivise private investment?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

19 March 2024

The role of the Greens in the next EU mandate and their key demands for the next Commission President
Location: Brussels

15 March 2024

Where will Labour find the money?
During this briefing call, Forefront Managing Director James McBride addressed:

Which taxes a Labour government might look to increase, when and by how much
Why tax increases alone will almost certainly not be enough to fill the fiscal black hole
What more a Labour government will need to do

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

14 March 2024

What’s next for the ECR with Stephen Woodard, former Deputy Secretary General
Location: Brussels

8 March 2024

Von der Leyen II – what’s the price of re-electing the Commission President?
During this briefing call, Managing Director Christopher Gluck set out the timeline, the negotiations and necessary concessions for von der Leyen’s re-election, including:

What are the main risks to von der Leyen’s re-election?
Will she be elected in July or in September?
What will be the electoral coalition?
What are the main political groups asking in return for their support?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

5 March 2024

What’s next for Renew Europe with Philip Drauz, Secretary General
Location: Brussels

1 March 2024

The future of EU defence
During this call, we discussed what to expect and what will come next, including:

What is the challenge and why is there such urgency to act?
What should we expect from the European Commission strategy?
What will happen in the next mandate and what would an EU defence Commissioner do?
What is the state of defence funding in Germany?

February

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

29 February 2024

Small yard, high fence? – assessing the direction of China/EU/US economic security measures
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

29 February 2024

Roundtable with Klaus Welle on the future of the European People’s Party
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

23 February 2024

Roundtable with Federica Mogherini
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

21 February 2024

UK and German fiscal policy
Location: Brussels

16 February 2024

UK economic data and the political reaction
During this briefing, we addressed:

The impact on the spring Budget, and what Sunak and Hunt can afford to do.
The implications on the Conservatives’ wider economic strategy and whether it has a chance of working.
The ramifications of all of this on an in-coming Labour government, on both fiscal policy and supply-side reforms.

14 February 2024

EU elections scenarios and polling briefing
During this briefing, we addressed: The latest seat projections for the European Parliament and what drives the discrepancy in the competing projections;

An assessment of the intern-institutional dynamic for the election of the top jobs and the creation of a coalition for the
next mandate;
A review of the party manifestos and the likely policy impact;
A political and regulatory scenario analysis on what this means for key files and for European politics

9 February 2024

Ukraine and Russia scenarios
During this briefing, we addressed:

What are the likely scenarios over the next two years in Ukraine?
The preparations by G7 and NATO allies for the war anniversary and the new policy measures to be announced
The latest updates on the next Russia sanctions package
Will we see a meaningful step up in European defence industrial production?

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

7 February 2024

Jim Cloos: roundtable discussion
Location: Brussels

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

6 February 2024

Barriers to Tokenisation in the EU, with Peter Kerstens
Location: Brussels

2 February 2024

Brazil’s G20 Presidency: Tech and Climate Priorities
During this briefing, guest speaker Bruno Batavia, a Principal Director of Emerging Tech at Valor Capital discussed:

How Brazil is thinking about technology and innovation in critical technologies
How does Brazil want to use its G20 role to push this agenda globally?
What is Lula’s sustainability agenda?
How will this reflect in G20 priorities?
Where is Brazil on its digital finance journey -what are the current policy priorities?
How will we see these in the G20 agenda?

January

In-person: Exclusive Dinner

31 January 2024

Critical Technologies Outlook for 2024
Location: Brussels

26 January 2024

The European Council and Ukraine funding
The EU is under heavy pressure to provide clarity on the future of its macroeconomic support to Ukraine. EU leaders will try to clinch a deal at their meeting next week, but many questions remain unanswered. Managing Director Christopher Gluck addressed these questions during the call.

In-person: Roundtable Discussion

25 January 2024

Lessons from the set-up of the Juncker and von der Leyen Commissions: The European Parliament perspective
Location: Brussels

22 January 2024

Economic Security Package
In this call, Gergely Polner, Managing Director EU and Sustainability, and Dea Markova, Managing Director, Emerging Technologies addressed what to expect from the economic security strategy announcements and the subsequent policy debates.

19 January 2024

Hungary, Poland and CEE
In this call, we were joined by Peter Magyari, a leading Hungarian journalist and Tomasz Bielecki, EU correspondent for Gazeta Wyborcza, to discuss the way forward, including what is Orban’s strategy and how will the power struggles in Warsaw evolve?

12 January 2024

2024 Elections polling deep dive
To kick off the year of elections, the Forefront Managing Directors were joined by colleagues from Stack Data Strategy to discuss the state of each race in our 2024 elections polling deep dive.

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