These predictions were previously sent to clients with a full explanation and context for each one.
- The general election will be in the autumn. It will probably be 14 November, but the range of realistic dates is 24 October-19 December.
- The polls will narrow between now and election day. There is already some softening in Labour’s lead, and that will continue.
- It is near impossible for Sunak to remain Prime Minister. He can only remain in Number 10 after the general election if he wins a majority, and the prospects of that are vanishingly small.
- Speculation of a hung Parliament will rise. We don’t think it’s particularly likely, but that won’t stop Westminster talking about it.
- Starmer will win a majority. Labour can secure a majority with a diminished lead if its vote is efficient, which will be helped by tactical voting and its revival in Scotland.
- Starmer’s Government will be the most left wing since the 70s. Starmer is deceptively radical. He believes that Labour wins from Opposition when they usher in a new period of modernity.
- A new economic model will be attempted. Starmer’s Government will therefore be unlike the Labour Governments of 1997-2010 – it will be unashamedly focused on changing the existing economic model.
- There will be lots of fiscal expansion by both parties this year, followed by tax rises under a Labour government.
- The Tory party will go down a rabbit hole. Modern British political history shows that parties that lose power retreat to their comfort zone in Opposition. We expect the same from the Conservative party.
- Nigel Farage will play an important role in Tory fortunes: he still has a special hold over the party. Whatever he decides to do could have profound implications for the Conservatives this year and next.
For more detail and context to each prediction, get in touch about our UK Politics service, including a trial of all of content.



